Photo by Andrew Lang for TalkNats
Another year, another MLB season in which the Washington Nationals failed to sniff a winning season, let alone a playoff berth. So…what’s next?
This is the question the Nats are tasked with tackling over the MLB offseason. And it has a wide variety of potential answers. There are that many different directions in which Washington can head, and it will start with building a new front office that includes the player development group, draft group, and scouting. They could look to fast-track their timeline if they have broader budgetary constraints, and spend their way out in free agency which most don’t expect. They could consign themselves to the more gradual course they were supposed to have been on — you know, the one that derailed off the tracks this year — the one that has resulted in six straight losing seasons. Or they could look to straddle the line in between.
At this moment, it isn’t quite clear what they’ll do. Nobody outside the organization seems to know for sure. Though, it must be noted that 2026 World Series odds are already out at certain places, and the top online sportsbooks do not appear to have the Nats in the thick of the playoff hunt, let alone the contender’s circle. We will have multiple looks at this in the coming months and when the roster for 2026 is completed.
To what end this matters is debatable. The Nats haven’t even gone through the offseason yet. Positioning themselves for material improvement is still in play. It could still be Plan A. But if that’s the case, they have a handful of questions and issues they must resolve to attain that goal.
Figuring Out the Spending Situation
Before the Nats can really do much of anything, they have to name their head of baseball operations. After that, they must first determine how much they are willing to spend in the annual budget. In most recent years, this has not been a difficult determination. Washington has defaulted to affordability overall, but they did grow payroll last year with $50+ million to spend in new money. We all know that did not go well.
The Nats bankrolled the 24th-highest payroll this past year, according to Spotrac. They were 22nd in 2024. They were 26th in 2023. And they were 21st in 2022. And 22nd in 2021. They have not had a top-15 payroll since 2020, and their last top-10 payroll came in 2019, when they won the World Series and ranked fifth.
Fans and analysts alike are waiting for the day Washington spends big again. And as Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly notes, it remains to be seen whether the pendulum will swing back towards that direction again this offseason:
“Part of [their cheaper payroll] is because their young players like James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams aren’t yet expensive, but it’s also because, since Ted Lerner passed in 2023, his kids haven’t spent major money.
— Kelly said in that Bleacher Report article
“… While Mark Lerner and company have flirted with selling the team, at last check, they’ve decided to hold onto it. So they need to start spending again.
“Yes, Gore is good, and you can still hope that Cade Cavalli and/or Josiah Gray pan out. But this organization needs multiple starters and relievers. They could use a big veteran bat, like Alonso. The Nationals will be searching for a new head of baseball operations and manager this offseason, assuming they don’t remove the interim tag from Miguel Cairo. But whoever is leading the team will only be successful if ownership makes a commitment to winning again.”
Oh, speaking of multiple starters and relievers…
Figuring Out the Pitching Issues
Close your eyes, spin around 15 times, and then randomly point towards the Nationals’ bullpen or dugout, and your finger is likely to land on a pitching problem.
Washington has a consensus bottom-five staff on the roster. This past season, they ranked 29th in WHIP and also had one of the lowest save-to-save opportunities ratio; under 65 percent of their save opportunities ended with actual saves. If you prefer a more basic stat, the Nationals placed second to last in Team ERA. Their bullpen ERA specifically was even worse at last in baseball.
Upgrades need to happen at the top. Washington needs a better No. 1 starter than Gore. How big they dream depends on how much they’re willing to spend. Targeting someone like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Dylan Cease et al. would prove they’re serious, or at least look in the second tier.
Middle Infield Defense
With all due respect to Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., the Nationals need better gloves, range, accuracy, etc. from the middle of the infield which has been terrible at times. Washington finished dead last in fielding run value among all infields. They are not going to make a serious jump in the standings without it.
Second base is the biggest potential improvement spot. Garcia is only 25 years old, but it does not appear that he’s getting any better on the defensive side of the game.
Granted, the Nationals must have a replacement in mind. And the pickings are slim in free agency. Gleyber Torres can add plenty of offense, but he’s not a big upgrade as a defender. Signing a big-name shortstop or third baseman and moving them over to second feels like it’s out of the question like an Alex Bregman. Maybe you move Abrams to second base, and see what you get from Nasim Nunez.
The new General Manager will most likely prioritize pitching and adding one upgrade to the lineup. Maybe an upgrade at catcher will happen. Free agency is going to be weak this year besides Bregman, Alonso, Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber and some of those starting pitchers and relievers. This will be our ongoing discussion for months to come. Our offseason starts in less than six days.
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