When Paul Toboni officially was named as the President of Baseball Operations for the Washington Nationals, his calendar filled up quickly. The offseason began with nine arbitration-eligible players, and that was pared down to seven players as Mason Thompson and Jorge Alfaro were both DFA’d.

The deadline for MLB’s non-tender deadline is on Friday, November 21. Yes, we are less than 24-hours away. At this time, teams must either offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players for the 2026 season or negotiate a firm contract, otherwise those players will become free agents via the non-tender route. Teams might also be frantically working on trading some of their arb-players.

The Nats 40-man roster sits at 37 active players after the team protected Jake Bennett, Christian Franklin, and Riley Cornelio from the Rule-5 draft. Any non-tenders would add spots to the 40-man roster. The three players who have the highest likelihood of a non-tender are Luis Garcia Jr., Riley Adams, and Jake Irvin.

Annually arb projections are published by MLB Trade Rumors and here was the original list with Thompson and Alfaro:

In the past, former-GM Mike Rizzo would try to negotiate a fair offer before the tender deadline, and if the player didn’t take that offer, he usually non-tendered the player. The Nats always seem to have the right arb numbers and players’ values. Maybe that’s because Matt Swartz, who prepares the arb projections for MLB Trade Rumors, has been a consultant to the Nationals for nearly 13 years. That gave the Nats a homefield advantage, even if Swartz is from Philadelphia. Will Toboni keep Swartz for the future? That is one of the many questions we don’t have answers to.

Many of these player arb salaries are an overpay. Some by small percentages, and some by a lot. The no-brainers are MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, and Cade Cavalli as they will all get contracts. Abrams just missed “Super-Two” last year and is a first time arb-eligible player, and the same for Cavalli who got to this point as he collected MLB service time on the IL after TJ surgery.

The Garcia arb number is a little high. He made $4.5 million in 2025. He should get $5 to $6 million if the Nats retain him — you would think. His final WAR number was +0.7 which was impacted by his bad defense. If you use $8 million per WAR point, Garcia is worth $5.6 million. You have to think Rizzo would offer him $5.6 million in a take-it-or-leave-it move that we have seen Riz make. But he isn’t here — and we don’t know how Toboni will handle this. The same could be said for Irvin and Adams.

When we add all of these MLBTR numbers into our proprietary spreadsheet, the CBT payroll is just under $111 million to include all benefits, and Stephen Strasburg‘s final season on the CBT calculation of $35 million. Effectively, that is only $76 million in active payroll — sort of as the Nats will be carrying another $8.5 million for Trevor Williams and Shinnosuke Ogasawara. Williams will most likely start the season on the 60-day IL, and Ogasawara was DFA’d and outrighted to Triple-A. That Strasburg money has felt like an anchor dragging down a sinking ship. The 2025 Opening Day payroll this year was at $140 million with the Strasburg money.

You have to think the Lerner ownership group will spend at least that same $140 million giving Toboni at least $30 million to spend which we just covered in an article titled, Zim’s Mandate. Toboni would get more money if he non-tenders or trades anyone who is in the salary projections. My blind-faith hope is that the Lerners will actually expand payroll this year to give Toboni at least the same $50+ million that they gave Rizzo in this past offseason. We hope it is more than that.

The MLB middle separating the 15^th and the 16^th teams in payroll from Opening Day was $180 million in CBT dollars. That would be a stretch to reach that this year. Some teams like San Diego, Arizona and St. Louis have already said they want to decrease payroll. The Braves said they want to raise payroll. With a possible work stoppage after the 2026 season, what effect will that have?

If the Nats spend to $160 million, that would put the Nationals in the middle-third of spending. But the Nats are a small-market revenue team if you believe CNBC. The team’s revenue dropped to $316 million per CNBC. Only the White Sox, Rays, Marlins, and Athletics made less. The bad news for the Nationals is that attendance fell in 2025 at the same time that the Nats froze ticket prices for the fourth consecutive year for season ticket holders. That is concerning as revenue and payrolls are dependent on a balancing of the budget. The hope is that the sale of the jersey patch to AARP, new corporate sponsorships, and a possible sale of stadium naming rights will far exceed any concerns about decreasing attendance.

As we showed in 2011, the attendance actually grew as the team created positive buzz and winning vibes after they signed Jayson Werth as a long-term free agent and leader. The attendance from 2010 to 2011 grew by a mark of over 112,400. Was it all Werth that led to the increase, or was it a belief that the team “finally” cared about winning? Perceptions can be marketed. Winning is reality. You have already heard leaks to the media of teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates going after Josh Naylor and Kyle Schwarber.

Right now, the pressing question is about the non-tender deadline. And everything is inter-related. If you non-tender Garcia, who plays second base? If that answer is CJ Abrams, who plays shortstop? If that answer is Nasim Nunez, who plays first base? If you non-tender Adams, do the Nats pursue Daniel Susac, a 2022 first round pick of Oakland, as a Rule-5 draft pick?

There are a myriad of possibilities to what happens in the next day, week(s), and month(s). Here’s the thing — Toboni has no deep ties to any of these players. He signed none of these players on the active roster. The Nats are rumored in trades of MacKenzie Gore as well as Abrams. Who knows, people are clamoring for action. What will Toboni do? That’s the question. We should know on the arbitration-eligible players shortly.