Greetings my fellow TNers! What would be better for my debut article than a topic sure to raise the ire of nearly everyone? Today, I’m presenting a vision of a full-scale rebuild. This read will not be for the faint of heart. Will the new President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni, choose this direction? Doubtful, but who knows? Would it be justifiable? For the long-term health of the organization, yes. After the previous administration failed in their rebuild, Toboni was hired to get the Washington Nationals back to sustained winning. Are there other ways to get to Toboni’s vision? Of course, there are… but the off-season continues.

The Winter Meetings may be our first significant sign of what’s to come with the team we’ll see on the field next season. In this arguably dystopic future, Toboni tears it all down … or nearly so. Buckle up Nats fans. Season ticket holders, be warned. This is a pain to gain vision, full of risk. Toboni likely never has this opportunity again. The grace period for totally reworking the team is this off-season, and for Toboni — all the blame goes on the prior architect, Mike Rizzo, as Toboni has to tear it down to rebuild.

For this article, I’ll assume that Toboni has made extension offers to current Boras clients that have significant value — and are unconvinced they will ever extend. His top priority at the Winter Meetings will be: Brokering trades to set his team’s future on a path to continually competing for the playoffs, and if we get lucky– future championships. In this vision, we are in for a developmental season in 2026.

Our starting rotation battle is likely the ugliest scenario. Spring Training performances, with Gore traded this off-season, leaves us with Brad Lord, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin, Andrew Alvarez, Cade Cavalli, Josiah Gray and Trevor Williams. I’d love to give top prospect Jake Bennett a shot, but coming off TJ and with low innings totals, he starts in Double-A for me with a hoped-for quick promotion to Triple-A. The rotation isn’t pretty. The new pitching coaches have a lot of work ahead of them.

Let’s hope that Toboni and company work some magic with Gray’s repertoire and that he can stay healthy. Maybe we add another innings-eater pitcher on the cheap. Perhaps if we’re really fortunate, we grab a young MLB-ready starter in a trade return. The latter would be ideal. Otherwise, I’ll posit for this exercise a rotation of either Lord, Cavalli, Alvarez, Gray and Irvin/Parker or Lord slides to the pen and we’re left praying the new coaches can fix Irvin and Parker so that they’re not among the very worst performing starters in the league.

Our relief corps to start the year are headed by Jose A. Ferrer, although he could be moved at the trade deadline. I’ll include Cole Henry and Clayton Beeter as locks. Not hard to see why stever20 wants Lord as a high-leverage reliever. If he doesn’t earn a rotation spot, or if Toboni determines he’s too valuable as a reliever regardless, Lord would readily slot in here. We still need four (if Lord is included) or five here. I’m going to drop Trevor Williams in the pen when he is ready. If he’s healthy, he’ll get moved at the trade deadline, too. What do we have left from the 40-man roster? Jake Eder, Julian Fernandez, Sauryn Lao, Andry Lara, Konnor Pilkington, PJ Poulin, Orlando Ribalta, and Jackson Rutledge.

My friends, that bullpen construction is not pretty either. We’ll need to hope the developmental crew can hone control for some of these guys. The walk numbers in this bunch are atrocious. Lao and Fernandez’s numbers look good, but with incredibly small sample size. Pick your poison to fill it out. I’m sorely tempted to have the team’s No. 1 pitching prospect, Jarlin Susana, work out of the bullpen from day one. Maybe he’s our longshot at a PPI this season.

Moving to the infield, we again hope moving Gore and others brings improvements. The only lock for me here is Brady House at third base, and it’s because we’re talking about a developmental season. If CJ Abrams isn’t traded, he is the starting second baseman. We just can’t afford to keep his defense at shortstop. The best defender on the 40-man for shortstop is our number one aura farmer, Nasim Nunez. He might have the tool set the coaches can work with to have a very valuable contributor. He doesn’t have to be an offensive all-star to bring huge benefits. The team obviously needs a first baseman.

Maybe we get a huge developmental surprise and Seaver King wins the job out of Spring Training. Will he even be invited to big league camp? He’s not on the 40-man roster, making this a long-shot. I’d put chances of that at less than a 10 percent likelihood, even tearing it all down. Maybe we get a shortstop in a trade return.

Certainly, I wouldn’t want Toboni to pigeon hole trade returns based on need, but we have other glaring holes at catcher and first base. We’ve all been talking about this conundrum. Our current 40-man assets for those two slots include Andres Chaparro/Luis Garcia Jr. at first base and Keibert Ruiz, Riley Adams and Drew Millas at catcher. Toboni’s actually even said it out loud; these are positions of need.

My guess is to think Garcia is traded this offseason. His return will be minimal, and we’d likely have to send his salary with him. But maybe we get someone back, say a Double-A guy with some promise. If CJ is traded, maybe Jose Tena gets some time at second base. He may be another one of the players who has a tweakable skill set to reach that extra level. I’ve long thought his best defensive position would be second. Is he the long-term answer? Likely not. So how do we fill so many needs? Surely Gore alone won’t return enough. Adding CJ to the traded list gets us closer. But we need so much and we arguably have some depth in the outfield…

Here it is … under this arguably dystopic scenario Toboni sees a terrifying future where James Wood will not extend under any scenario, because, you know, he is a Boras client. Would it hurt to lose this young slugger? It would bring dire pain, but he has five years of team control remaining beginning with the 2026 season. Yet the return would be monstrous, setting the rebuild forward on an expedited basis — essentially getting a re-do on the Juan Soto trade.

If Wood was to be traded, we’d still have Daylen Lile, Jacob Young and Dylan Crews in the outfield left-to-right with Robert Hassell III as the fourth outfielder. We’d be hoping that JY’s off-season bat work brings results in=game and that Dylan stays healthy and clicks. Lile has already looked like a star at the plate. If Dylan put up those numbers, he’d have won the ROY. I think Lile’s defensive home should be LF, where I think he’ll settle in nicely with more familiarity. Let’s soften the blow of trading Gore, CJ, and Wood this offseason (and Ferrer this summer) by saying we’re able to extend Lile on a 10 year team-friendly contract. Lile looks like a quiet superstar in the making.

This rip the band-aid off scenario is rough. We’d have to hope power emerges from House and Crews, along with whoever plays first. It could get ugly at times, particularly with the pitching. But it could also provide Toboni with the ability to hand pick serious talent and shape the team’s future success. Combined with the coaching staff makeover to emphasize getting value out of our young, under-achieving talent, it might even be fun!

Full disclosure, I don’t think we will trade Wood this off-season. He’s a building block with as mentioned, five more years of team control starting with the 2026 season. But Toboni could bring back so much in return at any time that you have to listen to teams.

With that, I await the pitchforks and other sundries. Maybe folks will feel better about the team we ultimately field when this scenario doesn’t play out. I have to imagine it is tempting for a new GM to blow it up and reshape it according to his picks. Go Nats and long live Talk Nats!