It doesn’t take an analytics genius to see the holes in the Washington Nationals roster construction. No Mensa high IQs are needed to know where President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni, has to make additional acquisitions.
And Toboni has told us candidly that he needed pitchers, a first baseman, and a catching upgrade. He made the trade for catcher Harry Ford, and check that off of your list. Yesterday, news broke that left-handed pitcher, Foster Griffin, signed with the Nats, and that was leaked by Robert Murray of FanSided.
“… I don’t think you can ever have enough pitching. We’ll be open-minded at the first base position, potentially at the catching position. We’re going to see how it plays out — and what opportunities present themselves.”
— Toboni said in mid-November at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas
But if you analyze the FanGraphs projected roster construction, the Nats could use another starting pitcher upgrade, two hi lev bullpen arms, and a partridge in a pear tree a first baseman. But don’t pigeonhole yourself as Toboni warned. The lineup is very left-handed. Even the DH spot could use some right-handed thump to complement a spot that Daylen Lile and James Wood might share.
FanGraphs apparently liked the Griffin acquisition and just bumped him up to a +2.0 WAR. Like many former MLB pitchers who have gone to Asia to reinvent themselves, Griffin is one of many who just cashed-in on the biggest contract of his life. The former 1st round pick wasn’t poor after he received a draft signing bonus of $1.925 million as a teenager out of high school in Orlando. But bagging $5.5 million in this deal with the Nats is life-changing money when you’re 30 years old. And he got paid a good salary in Japan for three years that added up to over $2 million in total. His total earnings will be near $10 million.
The wild card in everything going forward is whether or not MacKenzie Gore is traded. Expect a drop of 2.0 wins from the projected FanGraphs winning percentage unless Toboni bulks up the starting rotation with more arms. This morning, FanGraphs upped the Nats to a .464 winning percentage, and that puts the team over 75 wins.
The other wild card in all of this will be the intangibles of coaching. How much more can this revamped coaching staff get out of this group? In a comment from NatsFanSince2012, a 10 percent coaching bump could happen. We will never know because you cannot measure it objectively. We will try to measure it subjectively.
FanGraphs will keep moving around their numbers for the 2026 season, and while their projections are a much more narrow range from the top team to the bottom team, it is a guide to follow as some teams will beat the numbers, and some will do worse. That’s how it goes. Rarely does the number come in to hit the number. The Vegas futures on wins and losses has the Nats at 69.5 via most betting sites. That line was at 67.5 wins on Monday.
Do your shopping on the FanGraphs free agent WAR projections. But no player will add exactly his WAR projection because adjustments to other player projections must be made. For pitching, any addition should be additive because they would be replacing 0.0 WAR or negative WAR pitchers. On the position player side, any new acquisition would replace some positive WAR most likely.
Some names that stand-out are Zack Littell (+1.7 WAR) as another starting pitcher, and Pete Fairbanks (+0.7 WAR) for the bullpen. Combined, that’s another +2.4 wins and would offset Gore getting traded. At first base, Ryan O’Hearn is at +1.4 WAR, but probably only adds a net/net of 1.0 win to the total. Yes, we know you want more star power like an Alex Bregman addition of +4.0 WAR or Cody Bellinger at +3.0 WAR. Chances of that are between slim and none.
Right now, everything is about incremental improvement. Just don’t forget Ryan Zimmerman‘s request to add a veteran as a team leader on a longer-term contract. That could be O’Hearn. What will Toboni do?
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