Most of the Washington Nationals $50+ million they spent in the last offseason was purged off of the roster quickly. All that remains is about $8.5 million with Trevor Williams and Shinnosuke Ogasawara as the only players signed in that offseason to 2-year deals. The only other remaining offseason signings on the roster are Josh Bell and Paul DeJong, and they are both scheduled to become free agents in the next month. Derek Law is the only other pending free agent, and he was injured all season.
After the free agents depart, the roster will be set at 37 active players and four players from the 60-day IL who could be added back to the roster if the team decides to retain Josiah Gray and Williams. Of course Williams gets paid regardless. Gray hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since April of 2024. While his arb projection from MLB Trade Rumors is only $1.35 million, PoBO Paul Toboni has to decide if he is part of the future. The same could be said for most of the nine arb-eligible Nats’ players. Additionally, is there a future on this team for Jorge Alfaro, Luis Garcia Jr., Mason Thompson, Riley Adams, and Jake Irvin?
In the past, former-GM Mike Rizzo would try to negotiate a fair offer, and if the player didn’t take that offer, he usually non-tendered the player. The Nats always seem to have the right arb numbers and players’ values. Maybe that’s because the person, Matt Swartz, who prepares the arb projections for MLB Trade Rumors has been a consultant to the Nationals for nearly 13 years. That gives the Nats a homefield advantage, even if Swartz is from Philadelphia. Will Toboni keep Swartz for the future? That is one of the many questions we don’t have answers to.
Give these numbers a look. They are sorted by service time.
Many of these player arb salaries are an overpay. Some by small percentages, and some by a lot. The no-brainers are MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, and Cade Cavalli as they will all get contracts. Abrams just missed “Super-Two” last year and is a first time arb-eligible player, and the same for Cavalli who got to this point as he collected MLB service time on the IL after TJ surgery.
The Garcia arb number is a little high. He made $4.5 million in 2025. He should get $5 to $6 million. His final WAR number was +0.7 which was impacted by his bad defense. If you use $8 million per WAR point, Garcia is worth $5.6 million. You have to think Rizzo would offer him $5.6 million in a take-it-or-leave-it move that we have seen Riz make. But he isn’t here — and we don’t know how Toboni will handle this. The same could be said for Irvin and Adams.
When we add all of these MLBTR numbers into our proprietary spreadsheet, the CBT payroll is at $110,196,667 to include all benefits, and Stephen Strasburg‘s final season on the CBT calculation of $35 million. Effectively, that is only $75 million in active payroll. That Strasburg money has felt like an anchor dragging down a sinking ship. Opening Day payroll this year was at $140 million with the Strasburg money.
You have to think the Lerner ownership group will spend at least that same $140 million giving Toboni at least $30 million to spend. He would get more money if he non-tenders or trades anyone who is in the salary projections. But my thinking based on the quote below is that the Lerners will actually expand payroll this year to give Toboni at least the same $50+ million they gave Rizzo in this past offseason. We hope it is more than that.
“The more money that the team generates on the business side, that money will flow [directly] into what we can spend on players.”
— Toboni told us in a conversation after the press conference
The MLB middle separating the 15th and the 16th teams in payroll from Opening Day was $180 million in CBT dollars. That would be a stretch to reach that this year. Some teams like Arizona and St. Louis have already said they want to decrease payroll. With a possible work stoppage after the 2026 season, what effect will that have?
If the Nats spend to $160 million, that would put the Nationals in the middle-third of spending. But the Nats are a small-market revenue team if you believe CNBC. The team’s revenue dropped to $316 million per CNBC. Only the White Sox, Rays, Marlins, and Athletics made less. The bad news for the Nationals is that attendance fell in 2025 at the same time that the Nats froze ticket prices for the fourth consecutive year for season ticket holders. That is concerning as revenue and payrolls are dependent on a balancing of the budget. The hope is that the sale of the jersey patch to AARP, new corporate sponsorships, and the sale of stadium naming rights will far exceed any worries about attendance.
As we showed in 2011, the attendance actually went up as the team created positive buzz and winning vibes after they signed Jayson Werth as a long-term free agent and leader. The attendance from 2010 to 2011 grew by a mark of over 112,400. Was it all Werth that led to the increase, or was it a belief that the team “finally” cared about winning? Perceptions can be marketed. Winning is reality.
There are so many question marks. The Major League Baseball non-tender deadline is November 21st at 8 p.m. ET. We will know a lot more at that time. Always a tough time right before Thanksgiving when teams say “no thanks.”
As always, this is an ongoing story as we can add more facts to the numbers and the outlook. This is a good starting point.
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