Photo by Andrew Lang for TalkNats
For anyone who went on dates the old-fashioned way, you would ask someone out face-to-face, and hope they said ‘yes’ to you. The difference in baseball free agency is that the good players have multiple suitors. The popular adage of, “It takes two to tango.” Yes, that really rings true.
With PoBO Paul Toboni planning for acquisitions of his next manager and front office moves, he has to also be thinking about how he will improve his roster. Last week, I had a great opportunity to talk with Toboni, and asked him questions away from the cameras. Would he seek a player on a long-term contract is what I asked him first? His answer wasn’t a ‘yes’ rather he said that it has to be the right player who will align to the timing of when this team is ready to be a dominant contender. Basically, I think he isn’t looking to sign a 34-year-old to a 6-year deal.
Next I asked him how much of a budget he expects to get? He obviously didn’t have a number and started off by saying that he would never expect a budget that would push the team deep into a loss. He said he has always been comfortable with parameters. He respects the business side of the team and will work with them to raise revenues, and this was an important quote:
“The more money that the team generates on the business side, that money will flow [directly] into what we can spend on players.”
— Toboni told us in a conversation after the press conference
But it is also important to point out that Toboni believes a strong farm system is the foundation of any team that wants sustained success. My feeling after listening to him talk about his ideas is that everything starts with scouting, drafting, player development, and great coaching.
Even after Boston traded a few key prospects for Garrett Crochet on Dec. 11 of last year, Baseball America is currently ranking the Red Sox as their 5th best farm system in baseball. Even after that trade — and before the team promoted several of their top prospects to the Majors, Boston was ranked №1 of all farm systems. That was impressive.
- 2025 Midseason Rank: 5
- 2025: 1
- 2024: 13
- 2023: 10
- 2022: 11
- 2021: 21
- 2020: 22
The chart above shows you the impact of turning the Red Sox from one of the worst farm systems to one of the best in just four years. How much credit Toboni should get is up for interpretation — but he was a key figure in that front office and bridged changes through four general managers in his tenure there. Also consider that Baseball America ranks the Nats today at the exact spot that the Red Sox were in at №21 before they moved up 10-spots in just one year!
Because Toboni comes with a background as a college player and scout, he has shown an eye to recognize amateur talent which not everyone can do. So much of it starts there. It doesn’t end there. AI won’t be calling the name of the Nats’ draft picks. Real humans will make those calls.
Toboni said he wants to create a scouting and player development monster. He has big visions, and you get the feeling he will get there quickly.
“We’re going create a scouting and player development monster that hopefully leads to a winning culture — and one that lands us as a perennial contender.”
— Toboni said
“When you initially get into the game — and you’re part of this younger demographic, you think about chasing players that fit great on a spreadsheet– but there’s so much more to it, and as the game has continued to modernize, placing an incredible amount of focus on creating a winning culture is front of mind for me. What that means is, we want to create an environment where our players are not just holding themselves accountable — but holding each other accountable.”
Was part of that response by Toboni inspired by Dylan Crews‘ exit speech on Sunday? He used the exact words of “hold each other accountable.” Here is the full quote from Crews as he said, ❝It all starts with day one next year, and coming out in Spring Training and setting the tone — setting the standard right away, and really holding each other accountable from the start. I think a lot of times this year we were able to brush things under the rug, and we should’ve said something. I think from the start next year, we really need to hold each other accountable, and set the tone — find the standard for next year.❞
Most of the questions on Toboni’s introduction day were about future spending, and the philosophies of building a winning team for long-term success.
“I feel great support [from ownership]. Is it easier to win if you’re spending a lot of money in free agency? Yes, that is objectively true. … The cleanest path to winning — and creating a sustainable winner is: Identifying, acquiring, and developing talent. Regardless of what our payroll is, you have to dominate that to be a contender deep into the playoffs.”
— Toboni said last week
That quote from Toboni was a key takeaway that “identifying, acquiring, and developing talent” is a main focus. Former PoBo, Mike Rizzo, used to say, “… Our objective we have is to win championships — not to be the №1 [farm system] in Baseball America.” My guess is Toboni believes having a great farm system will lead to sustained winning if you believe that is the context of that aforementioned quote.
For years, the Dodgers were able to win championships while also having one of the top farm systems. Here are recent farm system talent rankings for the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 2025 Midseason Rank: 7
- 2025: 3
- 2024: 9
- 2023: 3
- 2022: 8
- 2021: 9
- 2020: 3
You might be correct in saying that the Dodgers are able to do both because they spend a tremendous amount of money on Major League payroll. Yes, that is absolutely true. And there was a time in 2021 when the Nats had the most expensive starting rotation in MLB history going over the $100 million mark. The Dodgers went over $145 million on their starting rotation this year with Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Clayton Kershaw. The only one they scouted and developed was Kershaw, and he was drafted back in 2006.
Still, what Toboni said is correct in building that foundation begins with internal talent in the farm system. Keep churning out good prospects, along with smart free agent moves and trades, and you can sustain winning. If the four teams leading their league-division series win today, the Brewers, Blue Jays, Mariners, and yes, the Dodgers would be the four remaining teams. The Brewers on Opening Day had an identical payroll to the Nats, and Seattle is 15th in spending. It might surprise you that the Blue Jays are 5th in spending.
The odds seem low for a Mariners and Brewers face-off in the World Series. That might give the MLBPA too much ammunition to say that parity is fine in MLB. While there currently is no hard cap in baseball, the Nats can kind of spend whatever they want. Reality says that any team, other than the Mets, won’t do that. Per CNBC, the Dodgers raked in over $700 million in revenues versus the Nats at a paltry $316 million. How can you compete with that? You cannot in payroll dollars which is why Toboni is right in his approach.
“How do we compete? We try to do everything right. We draft well. We develop well. And then we get the sh-t kicked out of us by clubs that buy their players. It feels like the game is rigged.”
— One mid-sized market team president said to Jeff Passan of ESPN last month
What is ironic was Yankees’ owner Hal Steinbrenner whining about the Dodgers’ spending. He had this to say in the last offseason to the YES Network, “It’s difficult for most of us owners to be able to do the kinds of things the [Dodgers] are doing.” That is so funny dating back to when the late Peter Angelos was calling the Yankees the “Evil empire” for their top of the league spending. Until the CBA changes, teams can do as they choose to do. Every team is owned by billionaires. None as rich as Mets owner Steve Cohen — and they didn’t even make the playoffs while spending the second most of any team this year.
While Toboni does his thing on the player’s side of the team, another key is for the Nats to focus on their business side to raise revenues in what they can control. They might always be burdened with a terrible RSN TV deal, but if MLB goes to the NFL system of every team receiving the same amount in TV money, then finally, the playing field will be close to even. Even up the TV money, and after that, it is up to each team to maximize attendance and corporate sponsorships just like they do in the NFL.
All of the talk of revenue enhancing might be part of a waiting game as part of a much larger plan. If MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred gets his way, all teams’ RSN rights would fold into one deal in 2028. The next CBA in 2027 might include a hard salary cap and floor. Might. There could be substantial changes coming. All of this could even the playing field in terms of money. No more revenue sharing. It would be like the NFL. And the valuations of MLB teams will skyrocket in value like the NBA and NFL.
In the meantime, there is work to be done. As we discussed yesterday, the Nats arb projections are done, and we have a good idea of where the dollars are going to be spent on current players. The question going forward is where the money will be spent on future players? So where would you spend the money if you had $30 million or $50 million or maybe even $60 million?
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