LAS VEGAS — The dice were flying last night at the craps tables, and super agent Scott Boras was playing his game of craps with the media. The GM Meetings have all but wrapped up for this year. The rumors got an early start on the Hot Stove season.
Some are heading to Phoenix to see the finale of the Arizona Fall League and get in some more work since that is just a one hour flight on a commercial jet from Las Vegas. Some will stay a little longer in Vegas as tonight is the MLB Award show. The lucky ones got tee times at the Wynn golf course this afternoon. If you know you know IYKYK.
Down the road, the inaugural Capital One MLB Golf Tournament at Shadow Creek Country Club is in full swing as they say. This is a quick two day tournament. Yesterday was the Pro-Am portion of the tournament. The Nats have two participants: Riley Adams and Tyler Clippard. This is a competitive field. There are 15 foursomes of all current and former players, and the retired players are the ones who might have the edge — just because they had more time to practice. Even though Mookie Betts just finished the World Series two weeks ago — he just missed a hole-in-one yesterday. Betts can do it all — baseball, bowling, golf, and even a podcaster.
Of course in three weeks, everybody shifts to Winter Meetings mode for Orlando on Dec. 7. That’s the big one. Paul Toboni has attended those before — but never running an organization. He has a ton of work to do between now and then.
Newly named manager, Blake Butera, whose introductory press conference is now set for Monday afternoon still needs to finalize his coaching staff. Maybe he has done it, and the news has not broken. We will see. You would hope he has that part completed because after his staff gets a quick indoctrination to the Nats’ organization, they will be working on evaluations of the current roster and players close to making debuts.
There was little turnover from the 2026 roster and while there were some DFAs, none of those players were expected to make the Opening Day roster. There could still be some non-tenders and DFAs. Toboni already set some early expectations on the positions of need.
❝… We’re going to be really open-minded [on offseason signings]. I don’t think you can ever have enough pitching. We’ll be open-minded at the first base position, and potentially at the catching position. We’re going to see how it plays out, and what opportunities present themselves.❞
— Paul Toboni said from the GM Meetings
❝We’re not going to pigeonhole ourselves just into those positions. We will be open-minded and try, and be creative through it.❞
❝We’re in the business right now of just bringing in as much value as we can to the organization. However that may look, we’ll stay disciplined to that.❞
❝When we look up a year from now, I think everyone will see that we’re going to grow significantly.❞
Did Toboni say “open-minded” enough? I’d say he was crystal clear that they will be open-minded. The people who should be nervous are the first basemen which is really just Andres Chaparro right now. And the catchers should really be on edge and that group right now is Adams, Drew Millas, and Keibert Ruiz as the trio on the 40-man roster. My guess is only one of those four will make the Opening Day roster. The surprise might be Luis Garcia Jr. who played some good first base in a couple of games at the end of the season. Garcia is posting up workout videos daily. He already looks to be in better shape now than how he entered the 2025 season.
The team traded for Nathaniel Lowe last year with good intentions. It cost them $10.3 million and an arbitration hearing won by the Nationals to finally turn into a DFA in August of Lowe after he wasn’t traded. That’s four failures in three years at first base if you consider the entirety of Lowe’s deal, Joey Gallo last year, and Joey Meneses and Dominic Smith before that.
Scouring the names on the free agent market for first base, there are some interesting possibilities with Pete Alonso who should be a DH, Cody Bellinger who also plays outfield, and Josh Naylor. Then of course in the middle of that list is Josh Bell who had a terrible first half of the season for the Nats and finished at first base to replace Lowe — and Bell finished hot. There’s also Paul Goldschmidt,38, and Rhys Hoskins who battled injuries again in 2025.
The “decent” catcher field is even smaller in free agency. Led by J.T. Realmuto who was a +2.1 WAR player, the next four names with their 2026 age and WAR are: Victor Caratini (32, 0.8), Danny Jansen (31, 1.3), James McCann (36, 0.7), and Christian Vázquez (35, 0.3). The pickings are slim, and those WAR numbers might not tell the full story. Millas was a +0.6 WAR in just 55 plate appearances.
The starting pitching is deep … in free agency, but as we know, great starting pitchers are very costly. The Nats desperately need an ace. Yes, the future very much depends on what the team does with MacKenzie Gore who is rumored to be a trade chip. The team has big question marks after Gore. Cade Cavalli has to prove he is deserving of a spot. Currently injured are the Nats Top-2 pitching prospects, Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana and they are the hope for the future in this pitching staff. Until then, we will see what Toboni and his staff put together.
Will Jake Irvin even be a Washington National by the time we reach the Winter Meetings? His $3.3 million projected arb number from MLB Trade Rumors is a firm no from me. He should be happy with half that number. This was a pitcher who I compared to Jordan Zimmermann, and now I wonder if Irvin’s overuse resulted in permanent arm issues as his velo has dropped into the low 90’s. He was the worst effective ERA in baseball since Mitchell Parker was moved into the bullpen.
There are other names like Josiah Gray who hasn’t pitched for real since the first two weeks of the 2024 season, and Andrew Alvarez is a newbie. Trevor Williams and DJ Herz are both dealing with UCL surgeries which makes this a lot of questions marks and few answers right now. In comes Brad Lord as the pitcher who might just be in the Opening Day rotation.
Toboni and his staff have a lot of work ahead of them. Let’s give credit to Toboni who recognized that the catcher position is a position of need. First base could have a creative solution if Toboni pivots in another way and looks to Garcia, James Wood or maybe even Brady House to get first baseman gloves. And the only reason to move House is if you signed Alex Bregman to play third base.
Of course Bregman is a Boras client, and he was comparing him to a premium blend of Starbucks coffee that the Red Sox should be trying to drink and not cause a “Bregxit” yeah, I think that is a Bregman-Exit blended into one word. That was a weak brew for sure from Boras. You should have heard him spinning Alonso’s name. Oy vey.
Toboni named some of the needs in Las Vegas, and that was good to hear what he was thinking. He talked about being open-minded and not being pigeonholed. He wants to be creative. So Paul, call me and let’s talk outside the box.
Mostly, this team needs a veteran leader on a long-term deal. That will cost money — and expect that some of that money will be wasted. That’s partly a cost of doing business. While Bregman is at the top of my list, I could go to Realmuto on a 3-year deal if he feels like he can be that veteran leader.
So much of this will be based on budgetary constraints and then who says “Yes” to Toboni. Top players will almost always choose a winning team when the money is the same. The reason that Jayson Werth came to the Nationals was they paid much more than all other offers, and Werth saw the vision of a winning team and had enough confidence in himself to be that leader. Will others see that?
Remember, Bregman has two rings already, some of the others have zero rings. Werth had one ring when he came to the Nats. But if Toboni sells his vision, maybe a free agent will want to be part of the Nats’ future — not because of the money as the biggest motivator — but to win a World Series with the Washington Nationals during a potential contract window.
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