Ranking prospects and farm systems are based on a healthy dose of formulas and projections that come from statistics in varying sample sizes and a lot of subjective analysis. How else do you get numbers with variations so large that you question the validity of the work behind those numbers? Maybe Keith Law of The Athletic was too bullish on the Nats’ system placing them at №6, and Baseball America was too passive at №16.

You know the old saying on opinions, right? Everyone has one, and some stink. The real truth on all of this will be connected far into the future. Will Daylen Lile show the evaluators were all wrong because they never had him as a Top-100 prospect? Time will tell.

Physically separate scouts from each other and ask them what they think of a particular player. You will get two different assessments. Most likely several key points would match but the weighting would be different. On the 20/80 grading scale, one scout had Trea Turner with a 50 arm, and another at a 40. Speed at a 70, and another at 65. None of them had Turner as a future batting champ.

The Padres liked Turner much more than the Rockies, Blue Jays, Mets and Brewers who all picked before them in the first round of 2014. Turner has the highest WAR of any player in that draft class. He was not a Top-10 pick. What he does with the rest of his career will determine if he is a Hall-of-Famer. The Padres were smart to draft Turner, and blew it when they traded him.

When I saw Turner, future stardom was my assessment after seeing him in the 2014 Arizona Fall League against seasoned pitchers. Some can see it. Some cannot. Months after Turner’s first season with the Nats, my boldest scouting report was to EXTEND HIM. It was the first-time on TalkNats that I recommended an extension. Yes, some people laughed at me — okay, many people laughed at me. Sources told me, he would have signed a long-term deal back then as I proposed. But the Nats didn’t approach him about an extension for years. Turner finally talked about it after the Nats’ World Series win in 2019.

Turner was the classic case that the Nats waited too long. They probably waited too long on James Wood, and most likely on CJ Abrams too. You better see it early and get bold, or you end up in the situation the Nats have put themselves in over the years. Meanwhile, the Athletics have extended four of their core players on reasonable deals.

The Washington Nationals picked Elijah Green at №5 in the 2022 draft. Those same evaluators at Baseball America had him in their Top-10 on draft day by several of their evaluators. And just three years ago they had him as their №58 in all of baseball as a prospect. What were they looking at? He had a 40.4 percent K rate in the Florida Complex League (FCL) after the draft. Eli Willits literally skipped the FCL went straight to Single-A this past season and posted a 20.8 percent K rate against the same pitchers Green faced. Willits was only 17 years old. Green was 21. Willits put up a .757 OPS, and Green a .660.

Why get worked up over rankings from people who are wrong more than they are right. Sure, evaluations can be like batting averages. But if I were your scouting director the past 10 years, you would have Will Smith at catcher, and a rotation with Trey Yesavage, George Kirby, with Tyler Soderstrom in the outfield, and Zach Neto at shortstop — or probably at second base because Turner would have been my long-term shortstop. This isn’t revisionist history. It is all documented.

The 2021 draft was interesting in deciding between Brady House, Harry Ford, and the local guy, Jackson Merrill. I went with House at the time, and also had Dylan Crews in 2023. Yes, there were times I agreed with the Nats. Last year was a tough one going back and forth between Kade Anderson as the top pitcher and Willits if I went with a position player. And I would have done that Juan Soto trade to get Abrams, Wood, MacKenzie Gore, Jarlin Susana, and Robert Hassell III.

And here’s the thing, you can’t change the past. You kind of had to trade Gore. But if you had a winning team, you wouldn’t have traded Gore. This team is where it is because of poor drafting and poor player development. Although, both seemed to improve the past five years. Not elite, but it seemed to be getting better. Of course I hope Seaver King was the right choice over Yesavage in 2024. King is with the Nats. Time will tell.

You better be batting better than .500 on those first round draft picks. That is where you build most of your star roster from, and then some good fortunes on picks in the latter rounds. Yes, you can find great players in other rounds too.

Where would I rank this Nats farm system? Right around the 12th best farm system. I am bullish on Travis Sykora, Willits, and this Gavin Fien kid they got in the Gore trade. Susana to me would be a great closer. You need those players too. I wouldn’t have traded Jake Bennett for Luis Perales, but again, I hope I’m wrong, and Paul Toboni‘s trades all turn out to be great ones. He has made three trades already!

Again, we won’t agree on everything. To me, Bennett has top-of-the-rotation (T.o.R.) type of stuff that needed further development. You can’t cut bait too soon on players. You heard that from me before regarding Lucas Giolito, which was a colossal failure by the player development staff.

This farm system is moving in the right direction. It has a lot further to go. Rankings only matter if you agree with it. Again, we all have opinions.

What do you think Toboni would think of Rizzo’s quote? Toboni believes in building the farm system to create that strong foundation for the team. Having your peers rank your system at №1 would be a step in the right direction.