Photo by Marlene Koenig/Nats.Talk

Every team will blow a win in a 162 game baseball season. Few experience blowing 9-run leads. On July 20, 2012, the Washington Nationals blew a 9-run lead. Panic spread in the fanbase after that devastating loss. The legendary manager, Davey Johnson, lived it, then watched his team get shutout the next day. The fans were nervous in attendance at Nationals Park.

“This is probably the worst game I’ve ever managed in my life.”

— former manager Davey Johnson said at the time

You have to love that Johnson didn’t channel Davey Martinez and blame it on the players. Johnson blamed himself as the manager. Coincidentally, it’s the one year anniversary of the infamous Martinez speech: “it’s never on coaching.” And what a contrast to that 2012 quote above.

That’s what we loved about Johnson. Accountability started with him. He would tell you the way it really was — even if it meant that he was going to make himself the scapegoat and take the blame.

In total, Johnson had lived six decades as a player, manager, and baseball executive. He didn’t panic when sports radio was questioning his team. Those 2012 Nats won their second game after the July 20 meltdown, and went on a hot streak after that en route to 98 wins, the most in a regular season by any Nationals’ manager.

If you have lived through all 21 of the Nats seasons, you start to get vibes of what a particular team is in comparable terms from the past. Unfortunately, Davey Johnson will be watching these 2026 Nationals from heaven as he passed away a little over nine months ago.

For me, I’m getting some 2012 vibes with the way Blake Butera manages, and the way his team responds. Butera is a young man, and when Johnson was his age, he was still trying to extend his playing career and went to Japan to play for the Yomiuri Giants . Both managers are relationship type of people who embraced their own brand of analytics and think outside of the box.

Of course, everything can change and these comparisons might not seem close down the road. That’s fine, because Butera doesn’t have the pitching staff that Johnson had with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann.

The Nats are on an 83-79 pace right now — not a 98-64 record that the 2012 team finished with on their way to the Nats’ first NL East crown. Obviously this team doesn’t even have a bullpen like that 2012 team with Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen, Sean Burnett, and Ryan Mattheus. But that’s why this isn’t a 98 win team.

Will you take 83 wins and hope for 89+? This was a Nats team that Vegas oddsmakers had the over/under set between 62.5 to 68.5 games at different points in the offseason. Today, FanDuel is at 76.5 at -105 for the “over” meaning you would have to bet $105 to win $100 and the Nats would have to win at least 77 games for you to win that bet.

That 2012 Nats team had Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos, and Ian Desmond. All of them were All-Stars. These Nats have two All-Stars in James Wood and CJ Abrams.

Here’s the other thing: The money. The Nats total payroll for their position players is $25.34 million in total this season. Werth’s $126 million deal for seven years was $18 million a year. But inflation adjust that, and that would be the equivalent in purchasing power to about $26.11 million today. In dollars and cents, a 2026 Werth would be making more than the entire Nats position player roster.

Those 2012 Nats only scored an average of 4.51 runs per game. This 2026 Nats team is averaging 5.45 runs per game with 392 in the books lead all of MLB. Again, the difference is the pitching. If these 2026 Nats had a pitching staff like Johnson had in 2012, this would be a different ballgame. That begs the question, is there anything President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni, can do?

Someone suggested doing what the 2008 Tampa Bay Devil Rays did with a 22 year old named David Price. They called him up in 2008 as their top pitching prospect and a future ace — and asked him to be a reliever. He pitched in five postseason games with a 1.59 ERA. So should the Nats try this with Jarlin Susana when he is healthy?

With DJ Herz working his way back from his TJ surgery, he is currently pitching in the Florida Complex League. Herz might help in the future. Maybe Toboni can make some acquisitions at the trade deadline for some salary dumps that won’t cost the Nats any of their top prospects in a trade. Remember, the Nats traded for Daniel Hudson in 2019 and didn’t give up a top prospect in Kyle Johnston. Last we heard, Johnston was released in 2023 from the minor leagues and pitched until last year in Indy ball — and is now done with playing pro baseball.

We are just 17 days until July 1. We are 48 days until July 31. There is plenty of baseball to play to see if these Nats are for real. Maybe they are the 2011 Nats. A team that didn’t have Strasburg for most of the year because he was recovering from TJ surgery, and the team hadn’t traded for Gonzalez at that point. That 2011 Nats team won 80 games.

Things are so crazy that the once widely maligned catcher Keibert Ruiz is now producing like an All-Star himself. His +1.2 WAR is impressive. That ranks him Top-10 in baseball for catchers with all at-bats at the catcher position. Others were ready to get rid of Jacob Young, and he is now the third highest rated position player on this Nats’ team. Imagine if Dylan Crews gets into a hot streak.

And Young appeared on 106.7 The Fan in an interview at the end of May ad said this 2026 Nats team has an attitude of, ❝WHY NOT US!❞

Jacob Young said it about this 2026 #Nats team: ❝WHY NOT US❞ with @BMitchandFinlay on @1067theFan pic.twitter.com/XC932QXBVE

— Nats.Talk (@TalkNats) May 25, 2026

Look, it’s definitely possible the Nats finish with a winning record, yet a playoff run feels improbable. As of this morning, the Nats playoff Odds are 22.4 percent per Baseball Reference and only 0.2 percent to win the World Series. Those are actually higher odds than the Nats had on May 24, 2019. For the pessimists, FanGraphs agree with you as they have the Nats playoff odds at 6.5 percent.

Keep in mind, the Nats have played the toughest strength of schedule per ESPN at a .516. That means the Nats have the easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the season. As Johnson said, “This is baseball, no game is easy.” Stay grounded, stay humble, and just keep winning. Prove the doubters wrong.

“C’mon, man. We’re playing the Nationals. … I don’t think they have playoff aspirations. I mean, they obviously have a young team — and they fight. They do fight. But I wouldn’t say anyone picked the Nationals to be in the playoffs. So you have to beat the teams that you have to beat.”

— Xander Bogaerts told reporters before the Nats beat the Padres in a series to finish the month of May.

Remember what people thought about the Nationals at this time seven years ago? Opinions varied. Most were preparing for a sell-off at the 2019 trade deadline. But the players never gave up. What the players believe is what counts.

Every team will win at least 40 games and will lose at least 40 games. It’s what you do with the other 82 games. The Nats are three wins from their 40. At the conclusion of tomorrow’s game, there will be 89 games remaining in the season. As Butera said, “Just keep winning series.” Yes, keep winning series and everything else will take care of itself.

So why not the Nats?