A 44.1 percent probability is almost a flip of a coin which has a 50 percent probability of being heads-or-tails. That 44.1 percent probability was attached to the hottest hitter in baseball, Yandy Diaz, in RISP spots this season. That number is actually 54.2 percent in RISP spots with Diaz batting in his home park this season.

Manager Blake Butera could have walked Diaz with two outs, a 1-0 lead, a runner on 2nd base, and with 1st base open. Most of us (based on comments before Diaz stepped to the plate) thought that was going to be a walk to Diaz. Nope, starting pitcher Andrew Alvarez pitched to Diaz who laced an RBI double, then Alvarez pitched to the next batter, Jonny DeLuca, and struck him out for the final out of the inning. That inning ended in a 1-1 tie.

The value of that run shifted the win probability per MLB to 53.8 percent. And yes, Tampa would go on to win by a final score of 4-3. The value of that run was immense. The value of run prevention is sometimes more important given the game situation. Later in the game, Butera had a 3-2 lead going into the bottom of the 7th inning. The second batter due up was Diaz. Do you call on the young Orlando Ribalta to face his brother-in-law (Diaz) where the inexperienced reliever (48 MLB games) might get caught up in the moment or go to a different pitcher? Butera went with Ribalta who served up a single to Diaz in a stressful at-bat and then served up a 2-run homer to the next batter for the blown save and the final margin of the loss at 4-3.

Sometimes it’s Manager 101 and not analytics. Sometimes it’s commonsense when most people think you play the clear odds. But let’s just play it out that you walked Diaz in the 3rd inning and the same result is Alvarez strikes-out the next batter which he did in reality. Then maybe just maybe the score is a 3-3 tie after Ribalta serves up the 2-run homer or Butera would have gone to a different reliever in that spot in the 7th inning?

After yesterday’s loss, the Nats are now 1-9 in their last 10 getaway games. Maybe that’s just a coincidence too. Of course you can do a post-mortem on every close loss and rethink some decisions. The value of 1-run was an issue with the previous manager. Obvious decisions weren’t the “the little things,” rather they were the big things. Butera wasn’t asked in the postgame why he didn’t walk Diaz or why he chose Ribalta for the 7th inning instead of the 8th inning so he could avoid his brother-in-law.

Again, commonsense approaches to baseball go beyond analytics. It’s baseball instinct and the feel of the game. If you walk Diaz in the 3rd inning, what’s the worse that can happen? The armchair managing always goes on, but when everyone thinks before Diaz swung the bat that you walk him — you probably should have walked him.

Live and learn. Butera has said that he talks to the front office after every game to do a discussion of the in-game strategy while it’s fresh in everyone’s mind. Tampa Bay Rays have the best home record in baseball. They play great at home. But they can lose like we saw on Saturday.

Coaching is about trying to stack the odds in your favor which is why you make in-game moves. The Tampa manager, Kevin Cash, on Saturday pinch-hit for his catcher in the 3rd inning of the game as he pulled lefty Hunter Feduccia for the righty Nick Fortes to face Mitchell Parker with two outs and runners on the corners. It took an amazing defensive catch by Dylan Crews to record the out on Fortes. So close.

Funny thing is I’ve been told before by people that you shouldn’t pinch-hit before the 6th inning or ever pull your catcher before the 8th inning. Cash doesn’t subscribe to either of those ideas, and neither do I. You go by the feel of the game, and if you have a chance for a knock-out shot earlier, you try to go for it. Not every decision will work-out. That’s baseball. But doing nothing is going to be second-guessed and third-guessed. Even if Alvarez got Diaz out in that 3rd inning — that still wouldn’t have made it a smart decision. It was basically a flip of the coin.