One year ago today the Lerner ownership group shocked the baseball world by firing their 2019 World Series winning manager and GM simultaneously. It was the end of accepting excuses, and a move into joining the successful teams in the technology and analytics era. That was long overdue — and the results have been shockingly great. The Washington Nationals have improved by +17 wins in the past 365 days.
Few fans knew the names of Paul Toboni and Blake Butera before they were hired to lead this team in the front office and on the field. Dozens of front office employees were dismissed and every coach got pink slips but Sean Doolittle and Gerardo Parra from the team’s MLB coaching staff. Parra took a job on the player development side and Doolittle kept his same title.
It felt like “out with the old” and “in with the new.” Youth was dominating the new job openings, and that brought a healthy amount of skepticism. There is a lot of learning on the job. Not everything has been perfect, but things look a lot better.
Change is hard. The lineup is basically the same from 2025 with the exception of Curtis Mead for Brady House. But what Toboni showed is that COACHING, TECH, and ANALYTICS MATTER. Every offensive player has improved in different facets. The #Nats have the #1 offense in baseball. https://t.co/8sDSrez6bn
Toboni spent no additional money on his lineup besides tendering contracts to Abrams and Garcia who were both arbitration-eligible. They did switch Garcia to first base in a move that we’ve talked about here for over a year. The transformation of Ruiz might be the most stunning of all the moves. He’s turned into a semi-star by playing him less — something we’ve harped on here since 2016 about the way Mike Rizzo allowed his managers to pile drive the No. 1 catchers into the ground from Wilson Ramos to Matt Wieters to Ruiz. We called it “getting less with more.” Such a simple concept that Toboni grasped on Day 1 of the job.
The simple and obvious were all part of the improvement process. And Toboni embraced analytics to get the team to where they should have been. Those are part of the intangibles that are more difficult to measure, but we know they are working in their own way. Coaching up players with meaningful data matters. And Toboni got not one, not two, but three Trajekt Arc batting practice machines that are state-of-the-art. There’s one inside Nationals Park, one in Triple-A, and one at the team’s West Palm Beach facility. The amount of new technology was captured by us in photos from Spring Training.
Coaching was beefed up by nearly 33 percent in the player development level. Those players who didn’t buy-in from within have been removed from the system. Buy-in wasn’t optional. The results are that the Nats farm system went from the mid-teens to Top-5 since Toboni took over. Yes, some of that was the result of the MacKenzie Gore trade plus the Jose A. Ferrer trade. Most of it was from huge jumps up in process and results.
Speaking of the trades, on the good side is the Gore and Mead trades. On the bad side at the current status are the Jose A. Ferrer, George Soriano, Jake Bennett trades. Those three trades hurt as Ferrer and Soriano would be the two best relievers if they were with the Nats, and Toboni didn’t adequately replace them — leaving the Nats bullpen in a poor place. And Bennett would be the team’s second best starter, and he has turned into one of the best rookie starting pitchers in baseball.
❝We’re not shying away from the fact that we could have a lot more wins right now if our bullpen was throwing a little bit better.❞
— Paul Toboni said on 106.7 The Fan’s Sports Junkies show last week
On the other hand, Foster Griffin, a soon-to-be 31 year old rookie, was one of the best free agent signings by Toboni. The Nats are 14-4 when Griffin pitches. The only issue is that his contract was for only one year, and Toboni was taking on a lot of risk with no upside after this season as Griffin’s contract allows him to walk to free agency in the offseason. There was no team “golden parachute” in case Griffin worked out, meaning Toboni didn’t add any team options. Kind of “one and done.” Not optimal.
Both Abrams and Wood were picked for the All-Star game next week, and 2025 draft picks, Eli Willits and Miguel Sime Jr. are both headed to the All-Star game to play in the Futures Game.
Okay, those draft picks were made before Toboni arrived, and a source told us that Rizzo was set to pick Willits before he was fired. He is currently the No. 3 prospect in all of baseball in MLB Pipleline‘s rankings.
Mike Rizzo appeared 2 weeks ago on our @NatsTalkPodcast and while we didn't ask him about that draft, he said that 16-17 players on the current Nats' team were players that he acquired.https://t.co/ShmRqERyTm
While Toboni can’t take all the credit and Rizzo shouldn’t take all the blame, this will be a debate for another day. Again, Toboni is in position in a results business to take the credit for a remarkable turnaround. The +17 wins is tremendous. Would Rizzo have moved Garcia to first base, Nunez to second base, and create a shared catcher position with Ruiz and backup Drew Millas? Probably not or he would have done it earlier when it was clear that those were all smart moves.
But then again, Rizzo was known to make smart trades. That’s the one area that Toboni has to improve. Rizzo’s trade of Juan Soto for Wood, Abrams, Gore, and Jarlin Susana is one reason why Toboni has such a great team. We wrote about that as the Montmorency cherry tree that keeps giving.
Also, those trades of Ferrer for Harry Ford, and Bennett for Luis Perales could work-out in the future. They might just be short-term issues and an overall win in the long-term. While the Soriano trade for Andre Granillo can be called a failure, the rest still hold promise and will be best judged in the future.
The future is bright even though the bullpen isn’t. That’s where Toboni has to look in the mirror and take the blame for that debacle. Bullpens and benches are probably the easiest areas to fix. And if Abrams isn’t traded, this lineup is all team-controlled through the 2030 season with the except of Abrams who is team-controlled through 2028. But Willits appears to be the heir apparent.
You have to believe that Toboni has a plan, and the weak links have been exposed. No, they aren’t circled with yellow caution tape, however, the shortcomings are clear as to what needs to be fixed. Give it time. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day.
I said that my goal is to make the Nationals the envy of sport.
To me, that means an organization defined by our relentless pursuit of excellence, strengthened by our connection to each other and fueled by our positive energy. As a result, we become an organization that players and staff are itching to join because they know it’s where they will develop and thrive most; a place that energizes our loyal fans and attracts new ones, and where success is achieved – and sustained – over time.
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