In the last CBA, one of the major changes was an anti-tanking provision that would change the old drafting order for the mid-summer annual draft that used to be based solely on worst record to best record. The new system is a lottery ball system based on pre-determined odds. The worst 3-teams all have the same odds of picking first.

Based on the 2022 standings, the Washington Nationals lost 107 games and under the old system would have picked first and taken Paul Skenes. But based on the lottery system, the Pirates went from the fourth worst record to getting the first pick — and the Nats picked second and drafted Dylan Crews. In 2025, the lottery ball bounced in the Nats favor and they got the No. 1 pick and chose Eli Willits.

Last year, the Nats had the third worst record in baseball, but were ineligible for the draft lottery and picked 11ᵗʰ and chose Chris Hacopian in the 2026 draft. The same happened to the Nationals in the 2024 draft when they picked 10ᵗʰ and drafted Seaver King.

You will see the odds are so small in difference at less than 3 percent from the fourth worst team to rest of the draft picks. Also note that teams based on market size can be ineligible for the draft lottery. This year the Giants are ineligible based on market size because they were in the draft lottery last year. The Pirates are ineligible because they picked in the Top-6 for two years in a row.

Current Projected Top Lottery Odds (No. 1 Pick):

Colorado Rockies: ~19.1%
Los Angeles Angels: ~19.1%
Oakland Athletics: ~19.1%
Kansas City Royals: ~11.6%
Washington Nationals: ~8.7%
New York Mets: ~6.4%

All non-playoff teams could be eligible for the Top-6 spots in the draft based on the lottery system. This year, the Giants and Pirates are ineligible. On top of that, if the Mets do not end up in the Top-6, they will then be assessed a 10-spot penalty for CBT over-spending rules.

So yes, there are many complications and intricacies of the draft rules. The website Tankathon has created a daily format to show you the odds.

As of today, Baseball America has named their Top-6 prospects for the 2027 MLB draft in a group led by elite high prep school senior Dylan Seward, SS, Norco (Calif.) HS, followed by lefty Tomas Valincius, LHP, Mississippi State, top collegiate position player Brendan Lawson, SS, Florida, standout collegiate right-hander  Dax Whitney, RHP, Oregon State, impactful collegiate bat Gavin Kelly, C/2B, West Virginia, and Chris Levonas, RHP, Wake Forest. Read the full story at Baseball America.

Just so you have the names rounding out the rest of the Top-10, Baseball America names Lubin Rincon, SS, The Bennett School, Houston, Jacob Seamon, OF, Metrolina Christian Academy, Indian Trail, N.C., Landon Hairston, OF, Arizona State, and Landon Mack, RHP, Tennessee.

While those names have no chance of being the exact Top-10 when the draft happens in 2027, this is a good guide to start with.

By the way, the Nats and Mets are tied with 68 wins on the season — but the Nats have two more losses. The Nats are two wins ahead of the Royals. Here are the standings: MLB Standings.