The Washington Nationals have a chance for a sweep today against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Nats also control their own destiny to avoid the cellar in the NL East with an outside chance at 3ʳᵈ place in the division. The Nats have a 2.0 game lead over the Mets, and picked up another game against the Marlins who are 3.0 games ahead of the Nats for 3ʳᵈ place. The Nats are now 6-1 in their last seven games. There are seven more games to play this season.

Getting their 73ʳᵈ win last night meant the Nats have improved over 11 percent in year-over-year for wins above the 66 total wins from the 2025 season. Each extra win from here represents progress and also what they could do to improve going into next season.

How’s about the outing from Andrew Alvarez last night on the mound. He just got to 142.0 innings between MLB (108.0) and Triple-A (34.0) this year. Last year he pitched 146 innings. What Alvarez has done this year is incredible. He’s pitched to a +2.6 WAR in his partial season with a 3.17 ERA on his MLB statline, and that ranks him 26ᵗʰ in MLB (min. 100 IP). Top-30 is usually considered a bona fide No. 1 pitcher.

Since Cade Cavalli is ranked ahead of Alvarez, they form a nice 1-2 punch. Just imagine if Connelly Early can be another top of the rotation star, or the Nats sign a good free agent pitcher.

A pitcher who is auditioning for next year is Jake Irvin, and he starts this game. He is arbitration-eligible and could cost around $5 million +/- for next season. You have to wonder how the Nats see him for their future as well as others.

❝I feel like we’re trying to build something here. I plan on being here for a long time, so I feel like I got to be able to set an example for stuff like that.❞

❝I think that’s the privilege of being young.❞

— said James Wood after last night’s game

On offense, the Nats have the third most runs scored in MLB this season at 795 runs, and that is an impressive 5.12 runs per game. With the Nats pitching giving up 4.66 earned runs per game, the difference is really those pesky unearned runs due to the errors. Overall, the Nats have a +14 run differential on the season.

Here is manager Blake Butera‘s bullpen chart:

The FanGraphs WAR chart is now large in its sample size. You can certainly start to extrapolate the numbers for the full-season. The OAA defense stat is now giving us a picture of what the Nats have — and don’t have.

Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
1st Pitch: 2:15 PM EDT
TV: Nationals.TV
Radio: 106.7 The Fan radio and via the MLB app. On Sirius/XM, tune to Channel 208 for the home broadcast and the road team is online only.

Photo by Andrew Lang /Nats.Talk