Tomorrow at 5pm ET on November 2โฟแต, the free agent floodgates are about to open. We might not see Tarik Skubal, the No. 1 ranked free agent, signed for a few weeks, but if the last collective bargaining agreement (CBA) taught us anything, there will be lots of signings before the lock-out begins one second past 11:59:59 on December 1หขแต.
In a clear sign that players feel confident about testing the open market, several opt-out clauses were triggered this offseason to become free agents โmost notably by Michael King, Nick Martinez, and Clay Holmes. Sonny Gray, Matthew Boyd, Michael Soroka, and Carson Kelly all became free agents on mutual options that were declined. Two players who opted-in on their player options were Bo Bichette and Ryan Helsley. Neither are a surprise after each had miserable 2026 seasons.
The qualifying offers (QOs) are due by 5pm ET on November 2โฟแต. The QO amount was set for a one-year contract worth the average of the top 125 salaries, or $23.15 million this offseason, per the New York Post. To be eligible for a QO, the free agent must have spent the entire 2026 season with one team and have never received the QO previously. The Mariners can tag Randy Arozarena with a QO, while the Dodgers cannot do the same with Skubal because he was traded during the season.
The industry is widely expecting owners to immediately trigger a lockout on December 2โฟแต, freezing all 40-man roster transactions and halting player-team communications. Because of this looming deadline, the “Hot Stove” is anticipated to ignite much faster than usual:
- The Rush to Lock in Contracts: Much like the frenzy in late November 2021 before that CBA expired โ star players signed massive deals just hours before the clock struck midnight โ both players and mid-to-lower-tier teams have immense pressure to strike a deal. Players will want to lock in guaranteed money before the sport enters a total freeze. Between the end of the 2021 World Series and the 2021 CBA lock-out, nine-figure free agent deals were signed by Javier Bรกez, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien. Nine-figure extensions were signed by Josรฉ Berrรญos, Byron Buxton, and Wander Franco. Several trades took place including deals with Junior Caminero, Adam Frazier, and several others.
- Not Every High Profile Free Agent Signed: Not every Top-10 free agent leading into the 2022 season signed a free agent deal before that lock-out. Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, and Trevor Story all signed nine-figure free agent deals after the last CBA was signed. Also there were more trades done after the CBA was signed in 2022.
- The Salary Cap Shadow: This offseason is uniquely tense because owners are aggressively pushing for a hard salary cap ($245.3M cap / $171.2M floor proposal), which the MLBPA has vehemently called a non-starter. Because existing contracts are expected to be grandfathered into whatever system comes next, big-market spenders might choose to aggressively overspend right now before any potential restrictions are voted in.
- The Scott Boras Factor: As you noted, the crown jewel of this class is two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Because he is represented by Scott Borasโwho historically prefers to let the market develop deeply into the winterโhis sweepstakes (largely expected to center around the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets) might be one of the few high-profile situations that deliberately bleeds past the December 1หขแต deadline despite the risk.
My Proposal:
Right now it might take a miracle for the MLB Players Association and the MLB to agree to a new CBA before December 2โฟแต.
Try for a compromise. Go for a CBA with a stricter CBT soft cap at the high-end at $245.3 million and then add a soft floor, not at $171.2M but at $143.3 million. Put similar penalties on both ends. Here is my proposal for penalties if you are above the cap or below the floor by 15 percent or less:
- Forfeit all international free agency spending
- Forfeit all first round draft picks along with the slot value
- 30 percent overage/underage tax
Here is my proposal for penalties if you are above the cap or below the floor by 30 percent or less:
- All of the penalties above plus;
- Forfeit all second round draft picks along with the slot value
- Forfeit $1 million additionally from the draft
- 75 percent overage/underage tax
Some of the other proposals are good like a $1 million minimum salary and I would add that it increases by 10 percent per year. Additional revenue sharing as we know it is eliminated. Instead, they adopt the same revenue sharing plan as the NFL where TV money and part of the attendance is shared equally. Owners are allowed to expand by adding new teams and divisions are set by geographic location but also by revenue groupings. Divide the 16 teams into the Western division and 16 teams into the Eastern division.
The idea was good to reduce the schedule to 154 games. I would add that each team can carry a taxi-squad reliever to swap in and out once per every two series for a reliever.
Allow for replay challenges not used by the end of the 7th inning can be used for an extra ABS challenge. Allow the video challenge to be used for any type of play. Right now there are certain plays not applicable for a challenge.
Change the 60-day IL to a 30-day IL as another rule change.
Other Ideas:
Basically no team will miss the spending floor because they will use that money to extend their own players before the end of the season. There will be a flurry of extensions, and that will be good for the game. Fans want to see their homegrown stars stay with the team.
What ideas do you have that we can add to making the game of baseball better?
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