The Major League Baseball offseason is officially underway, and with it comes MLB Trade Rumors’ highly anticipated 21st annual Top 50 Free Agent list. While a looming December collective bargaining agreement expiration casts a shadow over the sport, the run-up to the winter freeze promises to be frantic.

Coming off a promising 2026 campaign under Washington Nationals manager Blake Butera and President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni enter the winter with a distinct task: turning a gritty young roster into a legitimate postseason contender for 2027 and beyond.

According to MLBTR‘s expert predictions, Washington is poised to strike in the mid-tier market, with the writers specifically pinning two major rotation targets to D.C. while identifying several other high-upside fits.

The Primary Predictions: High-Upside Arms

Dustin May, RHP (Predicted: 2 years, $30MM with an opt-out)

• The Prediction: Steve Adams explicitly projects May to land in Washington.
• The Fit: May’s talent is undeniable—he still features a blazing 96.9 mph four-seamer—but his career has been a rollercoaster of injuries and volatile stretches. He threw a career-high 145 2/3 regular-season innings in 2026 split between St. Louis and Milwaukee, flashed brilliance with a complete-game shutout, but collapsed down the stretch with a 5.65 ERA as a Brewer. Metrics like FIP (3.63) suggest bad luck played a heavy hand. For a Nationals team needing impact velocity, a short-term, high-AAV deal with an opt-out gives them a potential top-of-the-rotation starter if he rediscovers his rhythm.

Hiromi Itoh, RHP (Predicted: 2 years, $20MM)

• The Prediction: Darragh McDonald pegs the former Japanese Sawamura Award winner to the Nationals.
• The Fit: If May represents pure power, Itoh represents clinical precision. Standing at 5’9″, Itoh is a finesse righty with an incredibly deep, 10-pitch arsenal and elite control. While his numbers ticked up to a 3.23 ERA in 2026, he owns a stellar 2.92 career ERA in NPB and has thrown over 150 innings in six consecutive seasons. Washington’s rotation values durability, and Itoh provides a high-floor, mid-rotation bulk option who relies on weak contact and a microscopic walk rate.

Expanding the Board: Looming Targets

While May and Itoh are the direct picks, MLBTR connected the Nationals to several other prominent free agents who fit the front office’s criteria for upgrading the roster:

• Clay Holmes (RHP): The former Yankees closer proved he can handle a starter’s workload between New York and Chicago. Armed with a devastating 57.6% ground-ball rate over the past two years, Holmes is a prime target for teams with an emerging defense, and MLBTR lists Washington as a strong on-paper match.
• Ty France (1B): After signing a minor league deal last winter, France authored a massive resurgence with San Diego, hitting .295/.363/.502 with 21 homers while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. Does MLBTR think France bats left-handed? Hard to see a fit here.
• Joc Pederson (DH): A premier weapon against right-handed pitching, Pederson rebounded spectacularly with 26 homers and a .235/.329/.487 line in Texas. MLBTR notes that Washington is among the teams that struggled severely against righties last year and lacks a permanent DH option, making Pederson a plug-and-play solution. This would only work if James Wood is a primary outfielder. My thinking is that Wood should be a primary DH to rest those legs, and find a left-handed platoon bat for the corner outfield like we mentioned in our trade article with Trevor Larnach.
• J.P. Crawford (INF) Crawford offers elite clubhouse leadership and positional versatility across the infield if Seattle moves on.
• Tyler Mahle (SP): While Mahle serves as an honorable mention for a mid-rotation arm following his electric, splitter-heavy resurgence in Atlanta, he certainly fits that mid-tier pitcher you would expect Toboni to pursue.
• Michael Soroka, RHP (Enters Free Agency after declining a $10MM option with Arizona) Soroka fits that analytics space of going two times through the order then carefully not pushing on him too hard after that. After battling back from consecutive Achilles injuries earlier in his career, the 29-year-old right-hander authored a fantastic 2026 campaign in Arizona, pitching to a 3.41 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP across 116 innings. He was a Washington Nationals pitcher in 2025 who wasn’t handled well because he just hadn’t built up into being a consistent 5.0 inning starter. He locked down a permanent spot in the Diamondbacks’ rotation and proved his durability, striking out 114 batters along the way. For a Washington team that deeply values ground balls and efficient run prevention, adding a rejuvenated former All-Star like Soroka on a multi-year deal provides a mid-rotation presence with front-line pedigree and that veteran presence at an affordable mid-tier price.
• Matthew Boyd, LHP (Enters Free Agency after declining a $15MM option with Chicago) While a meniscus tear limited him to 126 2/3 innings with the Cubs in 2026, he was highly productive when healthy, logging a stable 3.91 ERA. Over the past three seasons, Boyd has been the definition of a dependable veteran, pitching to a combined 3.41 ERA across 61 starts. He relies on veteran savvy and weak contact, making him a perfect high-floor bulk option who can give manager Blake Butera a proven left-handed weapon every fifth day.

The Dollar and Contract Projections From MLBTR:

— SP Tyler Mahle ($54M / 3 yrs)
— SP Clay Holmes ($45M / 3 yrs)
— 1B Ty France ($32M / 2 yrs)
— SP Dustin May ($30M / 2 yrs)
— SP Michael Soroka ($26M / 2 yrs)
— SP Hiromi Itoh ($20M / 2 yrs)
— IF J.P. Crawford ($16M / 2 yrs)
— DH Joc Pederson ($14M / 1 yr)
— SP Matthew Boyd ($13M / 1 yr)

Not Tied by MLBTR

The Nationals could also find tremendous value by pivoting to players not explicitly projected to D.C. by the writers of MLBTR, such as left-handed starter Foster Griffin (predicted at 3 years, $39MM).

After reinventing his arsenal in Japan with a new splitter, cutter, and sinker, Griffin made a triumphant return to the majors last season on a bargain deal with the Nationals, pitching to a superb 3.06 ERA over 22 starts before a deadline trade to Cleveland. He fills a desperate need for middle-of-the-rotation stabilization and left-handed balance, throwing a high volume of ground balls and minimizing walks at an elite 5.7% clip.

Bringing Griffin back on a multi-year deal would represent the exact type of efficient roster refinement Paul Toboni is searching for—securing a playoff-caliber arm who is deeply familiar with the organization’s coaching staff without paying the astronomical premium attached to the top-tier market.

The Verdict

Toboni and the Nationals’ leadership have made it clear that active, calculated roster refinement is the goal this winter. By targeting high-upside starting pitching like Dustin May or international fixtures like Hiromi Itoh, the front office can significantly stabilize their run prevention without compromising long-term financial flexibility. Whether they land their exact predicted targets or pivot to foundational pieces, expect Washington to be highly opportunistic as the winter market takes shape.

Photo by Sol Tucker for Talk DC Sports