Making projections is never an exact science. As Washington Nationals’ President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni, said yesterday, “Before the [2026] season, experts projected us to win 65 games. We exceeded those expectations with 77 wins, remained in playoff contention through late July and racked up a number of other accomplishments along the way.”

Spot on comment from Toboni who will head to Las Vegas next week for the annual GM Meetings. Before Toboni heads there, he might pull off a free agent move or a trade. Who knows. He said he is hard at work and metaphorically compared it to the iceberg you can’t see below the surface of the water. He also said that he is focused on, “Building strength throughout our organization while adding depth at every level will position us well. That is where I’m focused and how I’m spending my time.”

At Bleacher Report, the Washington Nationals ranked 20ᵗʰ in their year-end power rankings. But get this, at FanGraphs, they have the Nats as the 8ᵗʰ best team in the NL right now with an 80-82 record, and just four wins from tying the Atlanta Braves for the final spot in the playoffs — if there are just six playoff teams with the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA).

Of course all of those projections are before any major free agent has been acquired or a blockbuster trade. By the time the song ends for musical chairs, those numbers will change quite a bit.

Maybe you are the type that none of that information gives you optimism -or- you are a “glass half full” person and see better times ahead. Toboni wants to earn it, and not use the progress in 2026 as some indicator that better times are ahead. He is hopeful of course — just is not making any guarantees.

For all the years that Mike Rizzo was in charge of the Washington Nationals, do you remember a letter like that to the fans? This definitely felt like the second phase of Toboni’s tenure after reaching his short-term goals in less than a year. The new goals are about reaching October baseball and that is synonymous with playing in the postseason.

In Toboni’s final paragraph to the fans, he had a line that almost felt like it came from a Rascal Flatts song, “More than anything, I want you to know,” Toboni wrote to begin his sentence, and then finished with, “that we are working tirelessly to get the Nationals back to playing in October, and our relentless effort will not slow down.”

Again, Toboni is not a bloviating BS type of guy. When he said last year he would “find the extra gear” in players and work harder towards achieving their goals, the team did that. He talked about the “visible scoreboard,” and the results were there for the most part.

While we can complain about the negatives like the bullpen, the team still had seven full-time returning position players who improved on that visible scoreboard with OPS increases: Dylan Crews (+5.1%), James Wood (+8.0%), CJ Abrams (+11.5%),  Jacob Young (+21.3%),  Brady House (+23.7%)  Luis Garcia Jr. (+24.5%), and Keibert Ruiz (+27.6). Take those numbers, and that is an increase of 17.4 percent in an unweighted average. Cade Cavalli turned into an ace pitcher under the new regime. And two of the new acquisitions, Foster Griffin and Curtis Mead did so well with the Nats that Toboni flipped them for a lot of pitching.

There will be those people who always find reasons for negativity. And many in the media need those types for content engagement and will gladly fan those flames. We are already seeing names like Abrams in those persistent trade rumors, and you can either jump into those waters or ignore it.

The Nats have a core that the team controls through at least the end of the 2028 season. The needs are clear as to where Toboni must add talent from the outside. Pitching, pitching, and more pitching is needed, and add a lefty impact bat to the wish list. Yes, and my wish for you is that this life becomes all that you want it to — and your dreams stay big. Enjoy the ride.

Photo by Marideth Sandler for Talk DC Sports