The Nationals farm system sits between 12th and 16th in major publications’ rankings. These upper and middling positions mask a concerning reality. After trading away Juan Soto in order to rebuild the farm system and add some MLB quality players, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal pointed last month to a problem in Washington’s player development and drafts. While that might be old news that has been fixed, the damage was done in years of few impact players produced.

Three Top-100 prospects lead the system in Travis Sykora, Jarlins Susana, and Brady House, yet the organization struggles from the past is why this rebuild is so uncertain. So, let’s take a closer look at what advanced statistics reveal about the Nationals’ prospect pipeline.

How the Nationals Farm System Got Here

The Nationals’ Farm System looks nothing like it did when the Lerner family bought the team. Baseball America ranked them dead last for minor league talent in 2007. Interestingly, the organization turned things around through smart investments and development. This enabled the farm system to rise to the number one spot by late 2012 and became a top pick at sports geek MLB sports sites.

At that point, general manager Mike Rizzo was using his top prospects as constant trade capital. That forced the team to get older because they had to supplement their roster with expensive free agents, and the team was rarely adding to their bullpen with homegrown stars — instead trading for high leverage relievers or through costly free agent signings like the Rafael Soriano deal.

The team’s focus on winning championships at the major league level came at the cost of their farm system depth. They became buyers at every trade deadline from 2012-to-2019, which changed their prospect pipeline slowly and the trades for Sean Doolittle and Adam Eaton all but set the farm system as barren leading up to the Soto trade in mid-2022.

The Farm System rebuild relies heavily on international signings. Young arms like Andry Lara, who got $1.25 million as the team’s top international signing in 2019, show the team’s commitment to talent that was followed up by even larger expenditures to Armando Cruz and Cristhian Vaquero. Also, the team shook things up in 2023 by bringing in a new Player Development staff, and in 2024 with a new Draft department. The results look promising so far, almost every top pitcher has stepped up their game. But the damage of years passed is still being felt.

What Advanced Stats Reveal About the Nat’s Pitching

Advanced metrics reveal a worrying trend in the Nationals’ pitching development system after Sykora and Susana. Traditional prospect rankings place their farm system mid-pack, but deeper statistics expose major weaknesses that could hold back their future success as the system is top heavy, and not balanced right now.

The numbers tell a troubling story. Washington Nationals sit at the bottom against four-seam fastballs for in-zone whiff rates. They also rank second-worst on cutters, fifth-lowest on changeups, and seventh-worst on sliders. Hitters make too much contact with their pitchers’ offerings in the strike zone, a red flag for any future major league success.

But the news isn’t all bad though. Sykora had been lights out in Low-A with a 2.33 ERA and 39.2% strikeout rate before his promotion to High-A. His breaking pitches show real promise. Moreover, the comeback of Cade Cavalli, along with Cole Henry’s progress, could shape the pitching future. These advanced stats suggest the traditional rankings might be too optimistic about the Nationals’ pitching pipeline. Quality and depth both matter in developing prospects.

The Hidden Struggles in Nationals Hitting Development

The Washington Nationals Farm System’s biggest problem in hitting development is plate discipline. The team’s hitters chase pitches outside the strike zone, and these problems have already surfaced at the major league level.

In fact, the team’s 127 total walks put them at 21st in MLB. Their hitting with runners in scoring position sits at a meager .138, with just 4-for-29 in vital situations. The team struggles offensively, which is seen during extended losing streaks, often scoring three runs or fewer in the majority of those games.

Advanced metrics show deeper issues. The plate discipline statistics reveal many top prospects have chase rates above the league average.

The good news is that the Nat’s have started addressing these shortcomings. Tommy Everidge joined as their Minor League hitting coordinator after working as Oakland’s MLB hitting coach. On top of that, David Longley’s appointment as director of player development technology and strategy marks an important step for the Nationals. They have been long behind on data and technology in the minor leagues.

Why the Farm System Lacks Depth Despite High Picks

The Washington Nationals Farm system’s middling rankings in major publications raise concerns. This mediocre position seems puzzling given their multiple top-10 draft picks and trading away stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, and Juan Soto. The system’s lack of depth raises serious questions — and again go back to old issues.

It’s clear that their old strategy of using pitching prospects as trade chips cost the team when they most needed prospects to seed into MLB team in 2021 and 2022. Slowly, we see some possibilities with home-grown players like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz (injured) from the Jeimer Candelario trade. The jury is still out on Cavalli and others. Henry and Jackson Rutledge were failed starters who were second and first round picks respectively, and they have been moved to the bullpen.

The Nationals Farm System dropped about 10 spots in some rankings from last year after Dylan Crews and James Wood both graduated their prospect status. This drop was further than you would have thought. The system gets lucky with the No. 1 overall pick in this draft. The team might graduate Robert Hassell and Cavalli this season from prospect status, and possibly even House.

On the good side is that 2024 second round pick Luke Dickerson looks poised to make a major climb to top prospect status. The team needs many more victories like that. More than that is the team needs as Rizzo said:

“You have to do what you have to do to sustain greatness. … by having a core group of guys who will be with you through those years. … When your [prospect] stars become [MLB] stars — that’s when you take off …”

— General Manager Mike Rizzo said to invited season ticket holders in January

The real story is that organizational prospects have to turn into MLB stars for the team. That is how you contend when you have enough stars to win more games.