Photo by Sol Tucker for TalkNats

The start to Dylan Crews campaign season for Rookie of the Year was more bark than bite. Vegas had the №2 pick from the 2023 draft as one of the Top-3 favorites to win the award. Unless he can play his final 19-games like he did last night, he doesn’t have a shot at the ROY. More importantly is whether Crews can prove to be a viable part of the future core of this team.

Five games before Crews injured his oblique on May 20, an injury that kept him out nearly three months, he was batting .181 with a .551 OPS. Then he finally started to get hot in those final five games prior to the injury batting .357 and a 1.286 OPS with two homers in that short span. That gave some hope. But his acclimation back from the IL has not been anything great until last night when he homered with four RBIs and three hits to get to a .208 batting average and a .637 OPS. That was Crews first homer since May 20.

Baseball is about consistency. Crews has to be consistently good on offense. Amazingly, the team is 33-34 when Crews plays this season. Clearly his intangibles and leadership skills are strong. When Crews isn’t in the lineup, the team is 26-50. All of that seems to defy logic. But we saw over the weekend in Wrigley that Crews made a play in the gap that no other Nats’ right fielder would have caught. That changed the game as his pitcher was struggling in a 2-1 game. Defense matters, and even when Crews was struggling at the plate, he never allowed his defense or hustle to slump.

Realistically, Crews was going to be handed a starting outfield spot next year regardless of his final stats — but it would be much better if he earned it. His defense and base running had been the only reasons he’s slightly above the valuation of a “replacement player” which is measured in the WAR stat.

Yes that +0.2 WAR mark is disappointing, and fellow rookie Daylen Lile also had a slow start and was demoted to Triple-A and came back with a vengeance. Lile is at a +0.4 and has been the team’s best player since the All-Star break. Lile has the hit tool, but lacks the defensive acuity that Crews has. While they both have speed, Lile has also had some mind-boggling running mistakes. Most likely, Lile would play left field and DH, and alternate with James Wood like they have been the past few week, and continue in those roles for next season.

This is also a time for Robert Hassell III to prove himself. He is a league average defender which is an issue if he cannot hit — and so far, not so good. His .227 batting average and .592 OPS is in the same range as Jacob Young who is an elite defensive outfielder and hits for a higher RISP. At some point you would expect Crews in center field if the team had a better option for right field — and they really do not at this point.

Maybe Andrew Pinckney, Christian Franklin, or Ethan Petry will be that player one day. They are the next three top outfield prospects in the Nats’ farm system. Petry projects as a left fielder or first baseman and has the big home run power the Nats have wanted. Pinckney could be the next man up, and he can play right field and has the power and speed to be a 20/20 player if his Triple-A numbers translate — which is rarely the case. The unranked Nick Schnell, a former first round pick from Tampa and signed by the Nats as a minor league free agent, was the hot ticket until he faded in the past month.

There are just no clear paths internally to a great outfield unless players step up. And Wood has to be one of those players to step up, as his great first 87-games through July 3rd had him in the MVP discussion as he was 3 points shy of hitting .300 with a strong .958 OPS. Then his training for the HR Derby started the next day, and simultaneously Wood just stopped hitting. From that point through Sunday, Wood was batting .192 with a .588 OPS. His bat woke up yesterday — but he has only had THREE home runs since the All-Star break. That PapaJohn’s 50 percent off pizza promotion with Wood when he hits a home run has been a dud. Nasim Nunez has three homers since August 21 between Rochester and the big leagues. On the Apple TV broadcast on Friday, the TV crew pondered whether the HR Derby ruined Wood’s swing. You have to think it did.

In a perfect world, the Nats would sign a right fielder in free agency, but besides Kyle Tucker, the free agent market is thin this offseason. So most likely the Nats will pencil in Crews, Lile, and Wood with Young and Hassell battling for the final outfield spot unless the team decides to carry a fifth outfielder like they are right now.

Six months ago, we expected the outfield to be a strength of the team. Now we are looking for reasons of optimism beyond Lile who right now is the shining star of this outfield. If Wood and Crews can keep replicating what they did last night, the Nats will be in good shape for next year for their outfield. As we always say, “Ifs” are built in hope and optimism. Here’s to hope and optimism!