Photo Sol Tucker/TalkNats
When the Washington Nationals acquired the southpaw, Foster Griffin, from Japan, a lot of fans were left scratching their heads. But the recent data on the first year back for former MLB pitchers returning from Asia has had good results. Look at Miles Mikolas (2018) as he came back from Japan and became an All-Star and Cy Young candidate. There are several immediate success stories. Griffin left MLB as a failed reliever after the 2022 season and returned as a starter with a 7-pitch repertoire. And Griffin could be a star if he can fix his cutter. We will discuss that in detail later on.
As you analyze Griffin, he is the epitome of a pitcher who will finesse you, and he admitted that “I’m not a guy who will throw 95.” And that means he doesn’t have the big fastball. What he has is a full arsenal. He pivoted to throwing 7-pitches to right-handed batters, and he throws six pitches to lefties as they see his full pitch mix sans the changeup.
From Baseball Savant:
“In Foster’s case, he’s been good. It’s a little bit of a lost art — he has seven pitches. I think hitters in the league have become so accustomed to facing guys who are two and three pitch guys. You can just eliminate an offering or two and sit on a pitch and hope to get it. With Foster, you really have to be on time for different pitch speeds, and pitch shapes, and he commands it to both sides of the plate, and up and down. … That was a great outing from Foster.”
— Paul Toboni said in an interview this morning with the Sports Junkies
While the traditional WAR rankings won’t favor Griffin based on FIP (fielding independent pitching) which dings pitchers who aren’t high strikeout pitchers, Griffin has led his team to a 3-0 record and the team is 4-1 in his starts. He has pitched against some of the best teams in baseball — and his first five starts have been against either 2025 playoff teams — or teams that are current division leaders. In order, he’s faced the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Pirates, and Braves.
If you go by WAR based on ERA, Griffin is the top pitcher on the Nats at a +0.6 WAR. Results matter, and Griffin notched his first Quality Start of his career as the definition goes. Some would say his numbers will never stand-up because of his 4.94 FIP versus his 3.38 ERA. But the point is that with his 7-pitch mix, batters aren’t able to square him up with consistency. The two solo homers that Griffin gave up were on good pitches. One of the homers only carried 348 feet — and just snuck over the bullpen fence. The other homer came off of a pitch at the batter’s ankles.
What Griffin does well is induce enough weak contact to stay viable. The opposition have a .000 batting average this season against Griffin’s sinker and changeup. They are only hitting .077 and .182 respectively against his split-finger and curveball. The pitch that has been hit most often is his cutter. That pitch needs work because batters have dominated him for a .387 batting average on that pitch with a .677 SLG. What the Nats did was change his pitch mix last night, and he only threw his cutter 21.9 percent last night versus what was 32.3 percent usage in his previous four starts.
Yes, results matter. Consistency of good results will determine how Griffin’s season and future goes. Fix the cutter, and Griffin could be a star. His secondary pitchers are that good. A nice win on Tuesday. As an aside, the Nats now lead the Majors in runs scored. That helps. If the pitchers, other than Griffin, can step up, the Nats really could shock the baseball world. Could.
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