The Washington Nationals turned out to be the surprise team of the National League. For a few months, they were in the playoff hunt and had a winning record. In the end, you are what the record says you are. That’s fine. We know the Nats history going from 2011 with 80 wins and improving by 18 wins the next season with the best record in team history with 98 wins.
The Nats should be contending in 2027. Should. Will they? That is a fair question to ask. For the youngest team in MLB, they should be on a line of progression. They are loaded with star talent, and their farm system is getting ripe with top prospects. This is exactly how the Nats did it in 2012. They added one new star pitcher to the two they had, and the rest was history.
Yes, the Nats have some holes, and these holes are easily identifiable. Some are gaping potholes. There is no window dressing needed here. We can all see it clearly. Get another star starting pitcher, a couple of back of the bullpen studs, and then look at extending the window. Every current player with a WAR value above +2.0 is projected to be with this team at least through the 2030 season except for CJ Abrams (2028) and Jacob Young (2029).
The million dollar question is: ❝What would it take to extend Abrams?❞
Answer: ❝At least 9-digits of millions of dollars.❞
Let’s face it, foresight was the key —and an extension should have been done in 2022 as we suggested on CJ’s 22nd birthday. Now it’s pay-up time with Abrams -or- continue the trade debate.
This week, Abrams joined the exclusive 30/30/30/95 Club. Total membership in baseball history is 30 players. Led by Alfonso Soriano and Barry Bonds, this club is for the power/speed guys who drive in runs (RBIs). Once CJ gets his 100th RBI, the 30/30/30/100 Club has just 28 members. Looking at this list with Shohei Ohtani and so many other MVPs, you know that Abrams is special.
While Jay-Z owns the more exclusive 40-40 Night Club as well as CJ’s agency, Roc Nation Sports, it might be time to open the 30/30/30/100 Club as CJ will be there soon. Just sayin’.
Yes, Mike Sanders of Roc Nation Sports is Abrams’ agent. He might have his own ideas on what his client is worth. The new CBA might change their minds. These are interesting times.
Once Abrams started playing at second base, you could see the fit on this team. Abrams was a 4-Tool player already and the 5th tool is defense. That was not in Abrams’ toolbox. But if the Cardinals series was an indication, Abrams showed he can play defense on the right-side. He was valuable before, he’d be more valuable with a sharp 5th tool.
This week, Cade Cavalli‘s contract was extended. Former Nats GM, Jim Bowden, pondered if Abrams could be next:
Maybe a fair comp is to look at 2-time 30/30/30/95 Club member José Ramirez. He has done two contract extensions with his Cleveland team, and Ramirez, a former shortstop plays third base. Go back to Ramirez at age 25 and he was a +7.6 WAR player and well ahead of Abrams in value.
Because of Abrams’ defensive woes, his WAR value has kept him at only +3.8 this season. He just isn’t at Ramirez’s level of accomplishments…yet. Now Ramirez is signed to Cleveland for life (age 39 season). His concurrent deals add up to $210 million over 12 years. That is a bargain for Ramirez. Would Abrams do a deal like that?
Some would say the Nats’ talent pipeline is so strong that you shouldn’t extend Abrams and tie up the money. Again, foresight was to do this four years ago. It might be too cost prohibitive to do an extension now — and especially when you have such a strong prospect pipeline. But on the other hand, you do need those veteran players who are proven stars like Abrams. The ramp-up time for prospects can take years. Few can do what Juan Soto did for the Nationals. He was a bona fide star in the 2019 World Series season at 20 years old!
The Nats’ have the future No. 1 prospect in baseball with the 18-year-old shortstop, Eli Willits, 18, and second baseman Devin Fitz-Gerald, 21, in Double-A, plus another shortstop, Seaver King, 23, in Triple-A, and he is banging on the door. We’ve referred to Willits as the heir apparent at shortstop, and especially give his SIS award as the top defender in minor league baseball this year. But Willits’ arrival time might not be until late in August of 2027. With future needs in the middle infield, Willits, Fitz-Gerald and King are not blocked. There will be a need for some positional flexibility and King played some outfield in college.
The smart move might be to retain Abrams and see where the Nats are at during the trade deadline of 2027 to assess his future. There should not be a rush to trade him if the team is planning to contend in 2027 and beyond.
Add to the talent pool the Nats’ No. 1 draft pick from this year’s draft, Chris Hacopian, who the team sees as a second baseman or corner outfielder. And there are other potential skill infielders in High-A, Single-A, and Rookie-ball like Ronny Cruz, Coy James, Luke Dickerson, Marconi German, and Luke Williams.
The amount of future talent is impressive. But as we have seen with a can’t-miss star is sometimes they can miss. Others take years to reach stardom. Look at all of the angst surrounding Dylan Crews who is taking longer than expected to show his star.
In sports, there are few guarantees. You know what you have in Abrams. What will Paul Toboni decide? That is the multi-million dollar question. In my humble opinion, Toboni should be firmly clear this offseason that the Nats will not be accepting calls for trade inquiries on Abrams. Snuff out the drama immediately. Go into the offseason with the thought that CJ is the future.
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