The best laid plans can fail because of all of the variables involved. There are few sure things in life. Anyone who has ever taken a chance or a risk knows that. Some will say that buying quality gives you higher odds of success and that is true — but just look at the past offseason at the many top acquisitions that failed.

That is a hefty list there. Injury risk. Age regression risk. Performance risk. Change of scenery risk. Sometimes buying at the top of the market fails. This happens every year, and you do not want to be a team on that list.

There were plenty of risky Washington Nationals’ acquisitions in the last offseason that worked like Foster Griffin and Curtis Mead. And some that failed like Zack Littell were part of the best laid plans that did not work. His total package was $9.5 million if he met all of his innings limits. In total, he made $7.3 million. Not bad money for a 5.21 ERA and only pitching 4.76 innings per game. Littell was not only signed as an “innings eater,” but he also had a 3.81 ERA in the 2025 season. He was near the top of our acquisition list also. It. Just. Did. Not. Work.

When Littell was signed, he said, “I’ve always kind of prided myself on just being a guy that goes out there and throws innings quietly. … I just want to eat innings and people to look up and be like, ‘Hey, this guy has thrown 180 innings.’ That’s kind of always my goal.”

Again, best laid plans. In hindsight, many people will say, “You should have known.” That is revisionist history. Sure, maybe you could say that about dumpster dives, but every once in a while one of those turns into a Mead. Taken off the scrap heap and turned into a good player. President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni, spent good money on Littell. It just did not work.

Most dumpster dive free agent signings, Rule-5 drafted players, and waiver claims don’t work because they are all high risk deals. Every once in a while a deal does work like the Mead acquisition. Every team signs some dumpster dives with big league invites to Spring Training camp. Few if any make the team. Every once in a while you have a nice story like Clint Robinson. Most times they turn into a Cionel Perez.

The last offseason was supposed to be re-entering a rebuild and the strategy was a collection of dumpster diving. Going forward, Toboni will be building for a chance at the postseason. This is the time to go after higher quality players with a lower failure risk.

We have written extensively about the math and process to get to the postseason for the 2027 season. Even with the math and logic, you still have to play the games.

There are plenty of pitchers available in free agency. Many wouldn’t be upgrades. The competition will be fierce for the best pitchers. Add to that thought that there are no sure things. There is risk. The Nats learned that right after the 2019 World Series when they spent $35 million a year for seven years for Stephen Strasburg. They have learned that lesson through the years with numerous expensive bullpen relievers they have acquired. Remember Trevor Rosenthal ?

This should be Toboni’s first foray into signing quality over quantity. He doesn’t have many spots to fill for his 2027 roster. We know the needs are to acquire a solid starting pitcher, one to two upgrades for the bullpen with hopefully closer experience, and we added to our list a left-handed batter to fortify the lineup.

Usually we get a clearer picture of the offseason plans from the Nationals’ front office at the Winter Meetings. With those meetings beginning on December 11–14, 2026 at the Manchester Grand Hyatt in San Diego, California, the issue is that MLB could be in a work stoppage due to an expiring CBA to start at midnight on December 2ⁿᵈ.

The bullpen is a clear focus for Toboni — and it should be after their poor season of results. But what about finding a left-handed batter who can play first base? Is that a top priority for Toboni? We don’t know because he wasn’t asked specifically about that in his year-end media session. After the trade deadline, the Nationals only scored 4.40 runs per game compared to 5.35 before that (tops in baseball). Some of the offensive issues centered around an absolute fall-off by James Wood who had an injured oblique and only played in 21 games after the trade deadline, while driving in just 4-runs.

Toboni might think that with a healthy Wood that his offense will be just fine. But his roster still seems to be a left-handed bat short of having a level of balance that the team had before Luis Garcia Jr. was traded away.

Everything is about proper balance. You can bet that Toboni will be looking into free agency and trades. His job would be much easier if there wasn’t a looming work stoppage. Still, plan, plan, and plan. At some point, it will be business as usual, and the best laid plans usually work.