GM Meetings wrap-up today in Las Vegas

The GM Meetings, the “Sku-Bull” Market, and the Nats’ Blueprint: How Paul Toboni Can Turn 77 Wins Into October Baseball

LAS VEGAS — The annual General Managers Meetings in Las Vegas always bring a familiar rhythm of closed-door sessions, side conversations in hotel lobbies, and media scrums. Yet this year felt distinctly different, overshadowed by the looming MLB lockout set to begin on December 2.

Nobody expected a lot of action at the GM Meetings. Emilio Pagan signed a deal and some minor league signings happened along with some small trades. These aren’t the Winter Meetings. But with the CBA (collective bargaining agreement) issues, most expect a flurry of signings and trades to happen before the clock strikes midnight after Dec. 1.

Meanwhile, super-agent Scott Boras is doing what he does best: drumming up business from mid-market clubs to pump new money into the system. Representing Tarik Skubal, Randy Arozarena, and Ryan Jeffers — three of the top names in a relatively thin free-agent class — Boras holds the ultimate trump card in Skubal, the clear No. 1 player available this winter in what he has dubbed a “Sku-bull market.”

The Scherzer Parallel

To understand how a single megadeal can alter a franchise’s trajectory, rewind to the winter after the 2014 season. Back then, the Washington Nationals were not supposed to be in on Max Scherzer. As the story goes, in January 2015, Boras contacted the late Ted Lerner and sent him a detailed binder laying out why Scherzer was the missing piece in Washington. There was a secret meeting in Palm Spring, California and Lerner authorized a record-setting seven-year, $210 million contract for a right-handed pitcher. In 2019, the Nationals won the World Series.

That is the exact parallel to Skubal today, though the price tag has inflated past $325 million. My sources indicated the Nationals are not in on Skubal, which is hardly a shocker. Still, if Mark Lerner operated like his father, this is the exact type of deal you at least consider.

The competitive timeline might feel slightly premature, yet adding Skubal —projected for roughly +5.5 FanGraphs WAR — would instantly vault Washington into postseason contention projections. On paper, that single move pushes a 77-win club to what FanGraphs is already projecting as an 80-win team. Add Skubal, and that is about 85 wins. Fix the bullpen, add two high-leverage relievers and a left-handed bat, and suddenly the Nationals are sitting at 88 wins and squarely in the thick of the playoff race.

Of course, Ted Lerner’s 2015 splash also taught Washington a hard truth. When Scherzer signed, and Bryce Harper famously exclaimed, “Where’s my ring?!?”, expectations skyrocketed. That 2015 squad didn’t win a ring — it didn’t even make the postseason. Baseball isn’t played on spreadsheets. Although, good things come to those who wait. Four years later, Lerner, with Scherzer, and so many other key players, hoisted that World Series trophy.

Toboni’s Mindset and the 2027 Goal

Nats’ President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni, said it from the heart this past week as he talked to fans and the media.

“I spend considerable time replaying decisions in my head. I do this because accountability requires us to acknowledge where we fell short, understand why and improve the way we operate so that we make fewer mistakes over time.”

“But dwelling on the past does not help us build a better future. We have to learn, adjust and keep moving forward.”

“I am not an anxious person, but if there is one thing that keeps me up at night, it is the possibility that we fail to maintain our forward momentum.”
— Toboni said last week

What has Toboni learned? He learned that even the best laid plans don’t always work-out. Again, Nats circa 2013, 2015 and 2018 are perfect examples. Each of those years, the Nats had winning records, yet they missed the postseason. Okay, there were only two Wild Card teams back in those years.

The 2015-2018 Nats’ teams were probably the finest constructed rosters, and those four years consisted of two missed postseasons and two NLDS quick exits. Baseball is tough. Baseball is cruel. But success starts with roster construction and then sprinkle in some good luck.

Toboni asks himself, “How do we improve our roster? How do we help our players develop better and faster? How do we create an environment that brings out the best in everyone? What can we do today that will make us a stronger organization [Opening Day]?”

The stated goal for the 2027 Washington team is to play games in October aka the postseason. How you get there is not wishing and hoping, rather you must build a roster and an organization that projects that you can contend — then the key part — you must play the games and actually compete and win and contend.

Again, this is all easier said than done. Toboni has not been publicly linked to any particular free agent though he just said, “Yeah, we’re going to be active in free agency.”

In the opposite direction, Toboni might be “un-linking” as he is now tied to trade rumors on CJ Abrams and more recently on Dylan Crews and Daylen Lile. It’s hard to control rumors with a media that wants to spread them. We’ve heard the same about Abrams for three offseasons now.

On adding to the roster, Toboni has a plan. He just will not show all of his cards right now.

“… We’re going to do our best to sign really good players that can help us in 2027, and just see where it takes us beyond that,” — Toboni said at the GM Meetings

By the math, the Nats would have made the 2026 postseason if they had a better than average bullpen. With 42 blown saves, of which 24 games turned into losses, just 12 more wins would have put the Nationals at 89 wins and a playoff berth. Can’t change the past as Toboni said.

Here were Toboni’s thoughts from Tuesday, “I don’t think there’s one way to skin a cat [on bullpen construction], you know what I mean? So I think a lot of it also has to do with how that market shapes up, and if the [free agents] at the top are getting like a crazy, crazy amount of money, like, okay, we might be looking at other parts of the market to figure out how to fill the needs.”

That is classic Toboni — folksy, measured, and wired to under-promise and over-perform. Still, even he isn’t immune to miscalculation. He believed he had assembled a respectable bullpen for 2026. Looking back, the failure wasn’t necessarily a lack of raw stuff or nasty pitches; it was an inability to handle high-leverage stress when innings began to unravel. The result was a total implosion, with arms he counted on like Clayton Beeter, Cole Henry, and Mitchell Parker who absorbed multiple blown saves — culminating in that disastrous San Francisco re-treat which was the worst in team history.

High-Leverage Bullpen Arms

Bryan Abreu (RHP, Age 30): Coming off a down 2026 with Houston where his fastball dipped 1.5 mph and his home run rate spiked, Abreu is projected for a one-year “pillow” contract around $10.5M–$12.5M. He has no Qualifying Offer attached and is only one year removed from a 2.28 ERA / 2.2 WAR season—making him an intriguing yet risky bounce-back, late-inning weapon Toboni would target.
Raisel Iglesias (RHP, Age 37): An unrestricted free agent without a Qualifying Offer, Iglesias is projected around one year and $16M. If Washington wants a battle-tested closer to stabilize the ninth inning and take pressure off young arms, Iglesias provides immediate late-game poise.
Alex Vesia (LHP, Age 31) or Brock Burke (LHP, Age 30): If Toboni shops the second tier for a high-leverage lefty, Vesia brings swing-and-miss pedigree, while Burke posted a 2.30 ERA across 77 appearances in 2026 while holding left-handed hitters to a .195 average.
(Note on top-tier arms: David Bednar and Adrian Morejon are the top two relievers on the market, but both received Qualifying Offers, making them unlikely fits for a front office protective of its draft picks.)