Another year, another simulation of the draft lottery odds. We have run one million simulations for every draft year since 2023 with the exception of the year when the Washington Nationals were slotted at 10 and could not go up or down in the order.

So let’s begin with looking at the probabilities. In prior years, various sources (e.g., MLBTR and Tankathon) have had slightly different probabilities. I speculated that perhaps the difference was integer vs. decimal arithmetic.

Since the lottery is supposedly done by picking ping pong balls, it seems to me that integer arithmetic is more appropriate (i.e., you can’t pick a fraction of ping pong ball 😂).

So I decided to use the original probabilities in the CBA and then set the odds for the two ineligible teams to null/zero/nothing and then reallocate by dividing the remaining probabilities by the total. The table shows both the adjusted and unadjusted probabilities.

Logistically and figuratively speaking the simulation generated, 1,650 ping pong balls for the Rockies, Angels and Athletics and, for example, 1,80 for the Nats, The Giants and Blue Jays got no ping pong balls.

The following table represents the results of running and recording the results for one million simulations. Why one million? In prior years it seemed like the numbers stabilized at that point. The simulations were run in chunks of various sizes, mostly 25,000 or 50,000 at a time and the results for the latest run were compared to the previous one. The changes were minimal after about 900,000 so why not a nice round of 1,000,000 simulations.

The rows of the table represent the rank order of the standings in reverse order so the teams with fewer wins get a higher probability (Giants, Blue Jays as exceptions). The columns represent the draft lottery results. Note that 19+ is to account for the case where the Mets and Giants each drop 10 slots if they don’t get a top 6 pick (a loophole I hope the new CBA gets rid of).

For example, the Nats have a 41.5% chance of picking 9th – that is their most likely slot. It kinda/sorta makes sense since there are 8 teams that should (without a lottery) pick before them that had worse records given that the Giants were not eligible.

Please note that clicking on the table will open the image in a new browser tab and makes the numbers easier to read.

Clearly the Nationals are a long-shot to get the number 1 pick (but miracles and rare/unlikely events do happen). The following table provides a cumulative summary of the results. For example, the Nationals have nearly a 20% chance of a top-6 pick. And unfortunately for those few Nats fans who wanted the Mets to not finish in last place (which they did), the Mets have a slightly less than 63% chance of getting a top 6 pick.

Nats worst case (drafting 15th) did not happen in one million simulations. But 14th happened 29 times. Here is one example:

Why is 15th the worst case for the Nats? The table says 14th. It happened 29 times (.0029%) which rounds to 0.00%. Only the Rockies and Mets got a top 6 pick. That resulted in the Nats sliding back to 14. If the Rockies did not get a top 6 pick, the Nats would have slipped to 15th.

So what happens if the Mets also don’t get a top 6 pick, for example, 7th. They drop to 17th and everyone else except the DiamondBacks move up one slot.

Likewise, if all the teams with a better record than the Nationals gets a top 6 (i.e., instead of the Mets in this example), the Nats still draft 15th as the moving back one is offset by the Mets dropping back 10 slots. This order is an example of that: 11, 12, 13, 14 ,15, 16, 1 ,2, 3, 4 (10th), 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 (15th), 6, 17, 18

The 2027 MLB Draft Lottery is supposed to be held during the Winter Meetings in December. But that may slide as this is the first time the lottery has existed when there is a possible/likely CBA lock-out.

So let the debate begin once the lottery happens on who, or what position, the Nationals should prioritize.