Photo by Steve Mears/TalkNats

When the ABS challenge system came to life in Major League Baseball in 2026, we did not know the impact it would have — and will fully have going forward. We are only 10 games into the 2026 season, and while you cannot say for certain that it is a large reason the Nats have increased their walk percentage — it certainly appears to be a contributing factor. There haven’t been enough ABS challenges to even believe that it’s a significant reason for more walks, but maybe ABS has led to the Hawthorne Effect.

Huh, what?!? What is the Hawthorne Effect? That is when individuals modify their behavior —typically increasing performance — simply because they are being observed and in this case it is the ABS system. Go back three years of Ump Scorecards and the Nationals ranked in the bottom-3 for most net incorrect calls that went negative against the team. Bad teams often have an unfair bias. The ABS system, while not perfect, and limited to two incorrect challenges, still has been noticeable by most astute Nats fans. The egregious calls have gone away for the most part thanks to the ABS challenge system. And the Nats clearly are on a more even playing field with the homeplate umpires per the Ump Scorecard

Maybe you aren’t a believer in the Hawthorne effect. What about the ABS as a deterrent against those umpires who seemed to give more leeway to better teams and their pitchers and even to better framing catchers? The new ABS system is blind to all types of favoritism. The consequences of getting calls wrong have been an incentive it would seem. Larger sample sizes will tell more of the story.

Three of the best players with high walk rates are off the roster from last year’s team that included Alex Call, Josh Bell, and yes, Nathaniel Lowe. And the three newest additions to the Nats roster in Joey Wiemer, Curtis Mead, and Jorbit Vivas, all have double-digit walk rates. On the current Nats roster of returning players, six have improved and five have gone in the other direction. But two huge improvements are coming from CJ Abrams and Brady House with double-digit walk rates so far. And James Wood had a great walk rate last year, and it is better this year.

Because sample sizes are so small, this will need to be looked at again and again going forward to see how trends change. For instance, one more walk for Daylen Lile would have put him ahead of last year’s rate. As a team, the trend is moving in the right direction, and slightly ahead of the league average for walks and strikeouts. Those are the trends you like to see. The big question is whether this trend will continue?

There are a myriad of factors to why the Nats offense is trending up, and more home runs, extra base hits, and runs scored might have more to do with the new coaching staff and their philosophies.

We knew from hitting coach, Matt Borgschulte, that a goal of his was to work more walks and move the line. That could also be a contributing factor to all of this. Borgschulte also believes in preparing his batters with a plan.

And what all of this has led to is more runners on-base and to a point where they are showing better skills at baserunning, and that is leading to more runs scored. The Nats are 4th in MLB in runs scored which is more than taking their walks — they are also 3rd in XBH (extra base hits) and 4th in home runs if you can believe that. And the Nats have faced 2025 playoff teams for 90 percent of their games so far.

Overall, this new offense is a tribute to Borgschulte and his staff, along with the analytics group. With only four home games to this point, where the Nats were able to take advantage of their Trajekt Arc machine in the indoor batting cage, it is hard to quantify that into the equation too — but the Nats did score 17 runs off of the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend.

Here’s the truth, every part of what is working goes to subjective credits, and you cannot say ABS is the largest contributing factor or even the coaching or technology. And credit to the players who have improved. Some of that comes with increased time in the league. Each have played a part — how much, you cannot say. Trending in the right direction, and we will certainly revisit all of this again, and for now, credit to everything that is trending up.